Category Archives: oud

Qualys ‘Health’ Questioned After Q1 Billings, Deferred Revenue Miss

Qualys ( QLYS ) stock tumbled Tuesday on jitters that missed estimates for Q1 billings and deferred revenue could indicate slowing vulnerability-management sales, a Summit Research analyst suggested. In morning trading on the stock market today , Qualys stock was down 3.5% to near 25, piercing its 50-day line. Late Monday, the cybersecurity firm reported Q1 sales and earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, but offered soft current-quarter views. Qualys reported 21 cents earnings per share minus items on $46.2 million in sales, up 40% and 23%, respectively, vs. the year-earlier quarter. Analysts had modeled 15 cents and $45.1 million. Current-quarter sales guidance for $47.6 million to $48.3 million met the consensus of 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters at the midpoint, but the EPS outlook for 15-17 cents entirely missed analysts’ 18 cents. Robert W. Baird analyst Steven Ashley downgraded Qualys stock to neutral from outperform, but Credit Suisse analyst Sitikantha Panigrahi kept his outperform rating and 35 price target on the shares. Q1 billings of $48.3 million decelerated to 9% year-over-year growth and missed the consensus for $51.6 million, Panigrahi noted in a research report. On the company’s earnings conference call with analysts, CEO Philippe Courtot blamed the billings weakness on an altered contract with an unidentified managed security service provider (MSSP) and said some Q1 deals had slipped into Q2. MSSP deals are lengthening, which changes the way Qualys looks at deferred revenue, Courtot said. Deferred revenue came in at $101.6 million, up 15.5% year over year. Billings and deferred revenue are important “health” indicators for software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers like Qualys, Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury wrote in a report. Nandury reiterated his buy rating and 35 price target on Qualys stock. Yet he wrote that “we are a bit concerned the slowing could indicate the core business is slowing, or the upsell/cross sell could not be working as well as it should.” Courtot, however, said he expects Qualys to outgrow the vulnerability-management market on share gains and upsell opportunities. IDC forecasts 10% year-over-year growth in that market, which is Qualys’ bread and butter.

Cisco Subscription Software Growth, Dividends Are Bright Spots

Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) stock has bounced back nearly 20% since Feb. 11 and while there could be more upside in 2016, weaker spending by telecom customers could impact April-quarter results, says Pacific Crest Securities. Cisco is scheduled to report earnings for its fiscal Q3 ended April 30 on May 16, after the close. “We believe large-cap investors should continue to overweight CSCO, even after the stock has climbed 22% off  lows (now 19%), based on a favorable risk/reward ratio and the prospects for ‘The Rise of the Digital CEO’ theme to emerge as a new tailwind to drive share gains in the coming year,” Pac Crest analyst Brent Bracelin said in a research report. He says Cisco is well positioned to capitalize as CEOs and corporate boards take on a bigger role in IT (information technology) decision-making. Cisco stock is about even in 2016, but it was down 2% in early trading in the stock market today , and touched a nearly two-month low below 27. Cisco has a so-so IBD Composite Rating of 62 out of a possible 99. The network gear maker’s growing software revenue is a bright spot, contends Bracelin. “Cisco’s new leadership team continues to streamline operations and drive the model toward a higher mix of software subscriptions,” he wrote. “This, in turn, is slowly helping insulate profits during challenging periods, in our view.” He expects Cisco to remain acquisitive even as shareholder returns increase. Cisco has nearly $36 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet. “Cisco recently raised its dividend by 24%, which currently equates to a 3.8% dividend yield,” said Bracelin in a report. “The only mega-tech companies with higher yield are telecom companies  Verizon Communications ( VZ ) and AT&T ( T ). The $15 billion buyback is another avenue of shareholder return.”