Category Archives: etf

Do TIPS ETFs Deserve A Look As Inflation Rises?

Inflation has been floppy for most developed economies, including the U.S., for quite some time now. Reaching 2% inflation – as targeted by most of the central banks – has become a tall order, with both the eurozone and Japan struggling to ward off deflation. The nagging oil price crisis over the last one and a half years seems to be the main culprit. While the ECB and Bank of Japan were compelled to pursue QE measures to fight deflationary threats. Back home, subdued inflation checked the Fed from being aggressive on the policy tightening issue. Even after the lift-off in December, market watchers were under the impression that the Fed will likely apply a single hike, at the most, this year, thanks to the global market upheaval and subdued inflation. In such a scenario, the U.S. inflation rate rose 1.4% for the fourth successive month in January – the best annual gain last seen in October 2014, and surpassing market expectations of a 1.3% gain. Core consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.2% in January. The reading was the highest since June 2012, and it came above the goal set by the Fed at 2%. Higher rents, healthcare and transportation costs boosted inflation in January. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.3% in January – a four and-a half year high, and higher than the last month’s increase of 0.2%. Time for TIPS ETFs? TIPS offers robust real returns during inflationary periods, unlike its unprotected peers in the fixed-income world. These securities pay an interest on an inflated principal amount (principal rises with inflation), and when the securities mature, investors get either the inflation-adjusted principal or the original principal, whichever is greater. As a result, both principal amount and interest payments will keep on rising with increasing consumer prices. This mechanism makes TIPS ETFs investors’ darlings in times of rising inflation. Presently, the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TIP ) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend, having hauled in $256.5 million last week. The fund is up 1.5% this year (as of February 19, 2016). Is the Bet Worth It? Though the decline in oil prices has slowed, things are yet to stabilize in the oil patch. So, it is too early to take a call on the inflation picture. Of course, the recent trend is pointing toward solid inflation, and the upbeat January data has made the case stronger for faster Fed tightening. However, a lot of the future trend of inflation depends on the movement of energy prices. Still, investors with a long-term view can count on the potential uptick in inflation, as the U.S. economic backdrop remains more or less ,steady and issues in the energy space should be sorted sooner or later. With the economy and the job market mending, inflation will definitely increase in coming months. Below, we highlight a few outperforming TIPS ETFs which could be compelling investments if U.S. inflation continues to rise (see all TIPS ETFs here ). PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index ETF (NYSEARCA: LTPZ ) This fund targets long-term securities of the TIPS market by tracking the BofA Merrill Lynch 15+ Year US Inflation-Linked Treasury Index. In total, the product holds 7 bonds having effective maturity of 26.41 years and carrying a high interest rate risk, given the effective duration of 21.83 years. In terms of credit quality, the fund boasts top-rated bonds from Moody’s and the S&P, suggesting lower default risk. The ETF is less popular and less liquid, with AUM of $98.1 million. LTPZ has generated excellent returns of about 3% so far this year (as of February 19, 2016). SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA: IPE ) This fund targets long-term securities of the TIPS market by tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index. In total, the product holds 37 bonds having effective maturity of 9.08 years and carrying a moderate interest rate risk, given the effective duration of 4.90 years. In terms of credit quality, the fund boasts top-rated bonds. The ETF is moderately popular and less liquid, with AUM of $637.5 million. IPE has gained about 1.6% so far this year (as of February 19, 2016). PIMCO Broad U.S. TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA: TIPZ ) This $66.4 million fund looks to track the BofA Merrill Lynch US inflation-linked Treasury index. The fund holds 19 securities and has an effective maturity of 9.09 years, while its effective duration is 8.26 years. It charges 55 bps in fees, and is up 1.8% so far this year (as of February 19, 2016). Original Post

The Best And Worst Of January: Multialternative Funds

Multialternative mutual funds and ETFs averaged losses of 1.60% in January, bringing their average one-year returns through the end of the month to -4.23%. Over the longer three- and five-year periods, multialternative funds have generated positive annualized returns, but at just +0.87% (three-year) and +1.66% (five-year), those returns have delivered negative alpha of 0.81 and 0.99, respectively, relative to Morningstar’s long-only Moderate Target Risk Index. As a whole, the category is host to 163 funds with combined assets of $62.5 billion. At $8.9 billion, the John Hancock Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund (MUTF: JHAIX ) is the largest fund in the category with a 14.2% market share, while the top 10 funds hold a total of $31.7 billion in assets – just over 50% of the category’s total assets. Top Performers in January January’s top-performing multialternative fund was able to generate big gains of 7%, while the second- and third best funds added between 2-3%. The three best-performing multialternative funds in January were: CMG Global Macro Strategy Fund (MUTF: PEGAX ) Absolute Strategies Fund (MUTF: ASFIX ) Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (MUTF: VASFX ) PEGAX, the top-performing fund of January, only launched in December 2015. In its first full calendar month, PEGAX returned an impressive +7.00%. According to Morningstar, $10,000 invested in the fund at its inception would have grown by $120 as of February 17 – not bad for just over two months. ASFIX (one of the oldest funds in the category) and VASFX produced gains of 2.87% and 2.83%, respectively, in what was a volatile January for the markets. Of the two funds, only ASFIX has been trading at least a year, and it returned +0.31% for the 12 months ending January 31. The fund’s one-year alpha and beta numbers were -2.25% and -0.65 (relative to the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index), through that date, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.07 and volatility of 5.49%. These numbers compare somewhat favorably to the category averages of -2.29%, 0.49, -0.82, and 5.76%. Worst Performers in January While the bottom three funds struggled as equity markets sold off in January, there is a silver lining – the month’s worst-performing fund was solidly in the black for the year ending January 31. The three worst-performing multialternative funds in January were: Catalyst Macro Strategy Fund (MUTF: MCXAX ) Quantified STF Fund (MUTF: QSTAX ) Tocqueville Alternative Strategies Fund (MUTF: TALSX ) Although MCXAX was January’s worst-performing fund by a long shot at -10.24%, the fund was actually the category’s top performer for the year ending January 31, with gains of 32.05%! With a beta of 2.71 to the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index, these one-year gains produced an alpha of 42.08% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.19. However, volatility came in at a whopping 26.03% – numbers that are somewhat reminiscent of Barry Bonds’ late-career stats. QSTAX saw its shares fall by 8.05% in January. The fund, which only launched in November 2015, doesn’t have a long enough track record for further analysis. Finally, TALSX was the third-worst performing multialternative fund in January, with one-month losses of 6.53%. For the year ending January 31, TALSX lost 9.45%, thanks to an alpha of -5.30%. Its beta over the time period was 1.05, while its one-year Sharpe ratio stood at -1.00, and its annual volatility was 9.53%. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Jason Seagraves contributed to this article.

John Deere Q1 Results Drag Down Agribusiness ETFs

Before the opening bell on Friday, the world’s largest agricultural equipment maker, Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ), reported disappointing fiscal first-quarter 2016 results. Though the company surpassed our earnings estimates, it missed on revenues and provided a bleak outlook for full fiscal 2016, reflecting another year of declining sales and continued pullback in the global agricultural sector. Deere Q1 Results in Focus Earnings per share came in at 80 cents, comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents, but deteriorating 28.6% from the year-ago period. Revenues declined 15% year over year to $4.77 billion and lagged our estimate of $4.79 billion. The global agricultural slowdown and weakness in construction equipment markets were the major culprits for the lackluster revenue performance and this trend is likely to continue this year. Additionally, a strong dollar continues to weigh on the company’s profitability (read: Top and Flop Currency ETFs YTD ). As a result, the manufacturer expects 2016 to be another challenging year with overall equipment sales expected to drop 8% for the second quarter and 10% for fiscal 2016. Segment wise, the company expects global construction and forestry equipment sales to decline about 11% in fiscal 2016, including negative currency translation of 2%, and global sales of agriculture and turf equipment to drop 10%, including negative currency translation of 4%. The company also expects net income of about $1.3 billion for fiscal 2016. Market Impact Based on bleak outlook, shares of DE dropped as much as 4.7% on the day while trading volume was also heavy with around 9 million shares exchanged in hand compared with the 3-month average of around 3.6 million shares. Rough trading is expected to continue in the ETF world as well over the next few days, especially among those that have the largest allocation to this big agricultural equipment maker (see: all Materials ETFs here ). However, investors should closely monitor the movement of these funds and the stock, and could tap the beaten down prices with a low risk in the basket form. This is especially true as Deere has a solid Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with additional flavors of a Value and Momentum Style Score of ‘B’ each. iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (NYSEARCA: VEGI ) This fund follows the MSCI ACWI Select Agriculture Producers Investable Market Index and offers investors global exposure to 128 firms that are primarily engaged in the business of agriculture. Here, Deere occupies the third position with a 7.9% allocation. From a sector look, agricultural chemicals takes the largest share at 47%, closely followed by farming/fishing (20%) and industrial engineering (18%). American firms dominate the fund’s holding with 45.4% of total assets, followed by a double-digit exposure to Switzerland. The ETF is less popular and illiquid with $24.7 million in its asset base and around 10,000 shares in average daily volume. The ETF charges 39 bps in fees per year from investors and has shed 2.2% post Deere results. Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSEARCA: MOO ) This fund is by far the most popular and liquid choice in the space with AUM of about $758.4 million and average daily volume of nearly 215,000 shares. It tracks the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness Index and charges 57 bps in annual fees. In total, the fund holds 53 securities in its basket with DE occupying the third spot at 6.8% of total assets (read: Market Crashing! ETFs & Stocks That Deserve Love ). The product provides nice diversity across business segments with agricultural chemicals accounting for 37% share while industrial engineering (17%), farming/fishing (14%) and packaged food products (13%) round off the next three spots. In terms of country allocation, half of the portfolio goes to the U.S. firms while Canada, Switzerland and Japan get a decent exposure of around 8% each. The fund lost 1.5% on the day of the earnings release. Original Post