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Hit And Flop ETFs Of February

After a brutal sell-off in January and amid heightened uncertainty, the major U.S. bourses are on track to end the month of February in the green. Stocks advanced in the back-end of the month with two consecutive weeks of gains courtesy of the bargain hunting, a recovery in crude oil prices and abating fears of a recession in the United States. In particular, a slew of encouraging data pertaining to retail sales, consumer spending, producer prices, factory production and inflation points to regained momentum in the U.S. economy after a sluggish fourth quarter. Additionally, the second estimate of Q4 GDP data came in much higher than the initial estimate as the economy expanded at a faster rate of 1% annually than 0.7% reported by the Commerce Department in January. Further, hopes of stimulus from the central banks in Europe and Japan renewed confidence in global economic growth. However, concerns over corporate profits, global economic growth and uncertainty in the timing of next interest rate hike continued to weigh on stocks during the month. As a result, investors’ flight to safety in gold also continued with bouts of volatility. That being said, we have highlighted the three best- and worst-performing ETFs of February. Best ETFs iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: RING ) – Up 33.0% Global uncertainty and financial market instability have brought back the allure for metals, especially gold, boosting their demand. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal prices, metal miners tend to experience larger gains than their bullion cousins in the rising metal market. In fact, RING is the biggest winner, having surged nearly 33% in value. This fund follows the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Investable Market Index and holds 30 securities in its portfolio. The product is heavily concentrated in the top three firms – Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM ) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) – which combine to make 29.5% of total assets. Canadian firms take the lion’s share at 51.2%, while South Africa (19.4%) and the U.S. (11.4%) round out the top three. RING is the cheapest choice in the gold mining space, charging just 0.39% in fees and expenses. The fund has been able to manage assets worth $78.9 million. Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLB ) – Up 8.5% The material sector has been gaining strength, with robust performances in its chemical business as well as the metals & mining and steel industries. Growing automotive, a solid residential construction market and increasing production are expediting growth. That said, the most popular fund, XLB, with AUM of $2 billion, has gained 8.5% in February. It tracks the Materials Select Sector Index, charging investors 14 bps in fees per year. In total, the fund holds about 29 securities in its basket, with Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW ) and DuPont (NYSE: DD ) taking the top two spots, with over 11% allocation each. In terms of industrial exposure, chemicals dominates the portfolio with three-fourth share, while containers & packaging and metals & mining round out the top three positions. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or “Sell” rating and a Medium risk outlook. Deep Value ETF (NYSEARCA: DVP ) – Up 7.1% Value investing has been a safer option for investors in turbulent times, as these stocks are less susceptible to trending markets and exhibit lower volatility than their growth and blend counterparts. This fund tracks the TWM Deep Value Index, which provides an opportunity to invest in undervalued dividend-paying stocks within the S&P 500 index with solid balance sheets and strong earnings and free cash flow. Holding a small basket of 20 stocks, the fund is heavy on the top firms, with Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ), Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC ) and Newmont taking the largest allocation with a combined share of 23.3%. Consumer discretionary, energy and industrials are the top three sectors, with 15% allocation each. DVP is unpopular in the large cap value space, with AUM of $65.8 million, and is a high-cost choice, charging investors 80 bps in fees per year. It has gained 7.1% in February and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or “Buy” rating. Worst ETFs First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FCG ) – Down 18.8% Natural gas producers have been the biggest laggards as natural gas price dropped to the lowest level since 1999 on expanding supply and falling global demand. Notably, a mild winter in the U.S. and EU continues to push levels of demand down this month. Consequently, FCG, which offers exposure to U.S. stocks that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the exploration and production of natural gas, is down 18.8% this month. The fund follows the ISE-REVERE Natural Gas Index and holds 29 stocks in its basket, which is well spread out across components, with none holding more than a 5.61% share. The fund has amassed $145.5 million in its asset base, while charging 60 bps in annual fees. FCG has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating with a High risk outlook. Yorkville High Income MLP ETF (NYSEARCA: YMLP ) – Down 18.0% MLP is the corner that has received the worst blow from the oil price slide, with YMLP shedding the most – 18% this month. The fund follows the Solactive High Income MLP Index, charging 82 bps in annual fees. Holding 26 stocks in its basket, it is highly concentrated on the top 10 holdings at 57%, suggesting higher concentration risk. Oil, gas and consumable fuels take the top spot from a sector look at 66.4%, followed by energy equipment & services (20.9%) and gas utilities (10.4%). The product has managed $63.1 million in AUM. PowerShares Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PXE ) – Down 15.9% The energy sector remained under pressure from lower oil prices and unfavorable demand/supply imbalances. The recent jump in oil prices hasn’t been able to drive the sector, with PXE plunging nearly 16% in February. This fund tracks the Dynamic Energy Exploration and Production Intellidex index and evaluates stocks based on a various investment criteria, including price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action and value. It has 31 stocks in its basket, with none holding more than 7.38% of assets. It is a high-cost choice in the energy space, with 0.64% in expense ratio. The fund has AUM of $56.6 million and a Zacks ETF Rank of 5 or “Strong Sell” rating with a High risk outlook. 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Retail ETFs On Fire After Robust Results, Upbeat View

As the Q4 earnings season is winding down, the retail sector is grabbing attention with releases from its major players last week. Most of the retailers managed to beat our earnings and revenue estimates amid a slowing global economy, a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in oil. In particular, better-than-expected earnings from retailers like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ), Macy’s (NYSE: M ), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY ) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD ), and upbeat guidance from Target (NYSE: TGT ) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW ) spread optimism into the whole sector, and drove the stocks higher. However, disappointing results from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) weighed on the sector’s performance. Let’s dig into the details of the earnings releases: Retail Stocks Springing Surprises One of the leading department store retailers, J.C. Penney , emerged as the real champion in the Q4 earnings season as the stock popped up 14.7% and hit a new 52-week high of $9.7 1 following blockbuster fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 results on February 25 after the market closed. The company came up with a huge beat of 77.3% on earnings and a mild beat of 0.02% on revenues. Additionally, J.C. Penney expects to post its first annual profit in five years in 20 16 (read: Retail ETFs to Watch Ahead of Q4 Results ). The big-box retailer, Target , also hit a new 52-week high of $78.97 in the last trading session, while its shares have jumped 6% since its fiscal fourth-quarter 20 15 earnings announcement on February 24. Though the retailer lagged our estimates for earnings by a couple of cents and for revenues by $0. 157 billion, it impressed investors with its upbeat guidance for the current fiscal year. The company guided earnings per share in the range of $ 1. 15-$ 1.25 for the ongoing fiscal first quarter and $5.20-$5.40 for fiscal 20 16. The mid-points were ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $ 1.2 1 for the first quarter and $5. 16 for the full fiscal at the time of the earnings release. The second-largest department store retailer, Macy’s , has seen share price appreciation of 5.8% to date post its earnings announcement on February 23. The company reported earnings per share of $2.09 and revenues of $8.869 billion that outpaced our estimates by 23 cents and $0.092 billion, respectively. For fiscal 20 16, the company guided earnings per share of $3.80-$3.90, the lower end of which was much above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.72 at the time of the earnings release. Home Depot , the world’s largest home improvement retailer, cheered investors with better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results thanks to mild weather and an improving housing market. The company beat on earnings by 7 cents and on revenues by $0.6 19 billion. For fiscal 20 16, Home Depot expects earnings per share to increase 12%- 13% to $6. 12-$6. 18 and revenues to grow 5. 1%-6%, with same-store sales growth of 3.7%-4.5%. Driven by solid results, the company also raised its quarterly dividend by 17% to 69 cents per share and announced a $5 billion share buyback plan. The stock has gained nearly 2.7% to-date post its earnings announcement on February 23. The second-largest home improvement retailer, Lowe’s , reported in-line fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 earnings but beat on revenues by $0. 182 billion. Moreover, the company provided an upbeat guidance for fiscal 20 16. The company expects sales to grow 6%, with 4% growth in comparable sales and earnings per share of $4.00. The stock has added 1.8% to-date since its earnings release on February 24. The largest U.S. electronics chain, Best Buy , topped our fourth-quarter fiscal 20 16 earnings estimate by 13 cents, but fell short of our revenue estimate by $0.049 billion. For the ongoing first quarter of fiscal 20 17, the company expects earnings per share in the range of 3 1-35 cents. Shares of BBY has gained 0.5% since its earnings announcement on February 25. The Real Dampeners The specialty retailer, Nordstrom , is the major loser as the stock has tumbled nearly 6.7% following lackluster fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 results. The company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings by a nickel and for revenues by $0.09 1 billion. In addition, the company issued disappointing earnings per share guidance of $3. 10-$3.35 for fiscal 20 16, the upper-end of which was well below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.45 at the time of the earnings release. Nordstrom expects sales to increase 3.5%-5.5% and comps to grow in a flat to 2% growth range. The stock is modestly down 0.4% since the earnings announcement on February 18 after-market close. Shares of Wal-Mart , the world’s largest retailer, fell about 3% after the company missed on revenues by $0.687 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 20 16 and issued a weak revenue outlook, pointing to continued struggle with lower traffic and decelerating e-commerce. The company lowered its revenue growth projection for fiscal 20 17 from 3%-4% projected earlier to relatively flat. It also provided earnings per share guidance of $4.00-$4.30 for the full fiscal and 80-95 cents for fiscal first quarter of 20 17 (read: Consumer ETFs in Focus as Wal-Mart Disappoints ). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the full year and the ongoing quarter were $4.56 and 88 cents, respectively, at the time of the earnings release. However, earnings per share came in at $ 1.49 for the fiscal fourth quarter, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. The stock is up 0.6% to-date post earnings results on February 18. ETFs in Focus Robust performances and bullish guidance from most retailers offset the handful of weak earnings releases, leading to a rally in retail ETFs over the past 10 days. Investors seeking to take advantage of the ongoing rally in the space could consider the following three ETFs given the power-packed earnings releases. Any of these could be excellent choices given that these have a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy), suggesting their continued outperformance in the months ahead. SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT ) This product tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, holding 100 securities in its basket. It is widely spread across each component as each of these holds less than 1.6% of total assets. Small cap stocks dominate nearly three-fifth of the portfolio while the rest have been split between the other two market cap levels. In terms of sector holdings, apparel retail takes the top spot at one-fourth share while specialty stores, automotive retail and Internet retail have a double-digit allocation each. XRT is the most popular and actively traded ETF in the retail space with AUM of about $667.9 million and average daily volume of more than 4.3 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and gained 12.8% over the past 10 days. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 1. Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH ) This fund tracks the Market Vectors US Listed Retail 25 Index and holds about 26 stocks in its basket. It is a largecap-centric fund and is heavily concentrated on the top 10 holdings with 64. 1% of assets. The largest allocations go to Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Home Depot and Wal-Mart (read: ETFs to Watch Post Amazon’s Big Earnings Miss ). Sector-wise, specialty retail occupies the top position with less than one-third share, followed by double-digit allocations each to Internet and catalog retail, hypermarkets, drug stores, departmental stores and healthcare services. The fund has amassed $ 149.6 million in its asset base while average daily volume is moderate at about 77,000 shares. Expense ratio came in at 0.35%. The product added 8.2% in the same period and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2. PowerShares Retail Fund (NYSEARCA: PMR ) This retail fund provides a diversified exposure across various market caps with 45% in large caps, 43% in small caps and the rest in mid caps. This is easily done by tracking the Dynamic Retail Intellidex Index. The fund has accumulated just $22.8 million in its asset base while trades in a light volume of under 5,000 shares a day. The ETF charges 63 bps in fees per year. In total, the product holds 29 securities with none accounting for more than 5.88% of assets. In terms of industrial exposure, specialty retail takes the top spot at 48%, while food retail ( 19%) and drug stores ( 12%) round off the top three positions. PMR is up 8.5% in the past 10 days and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2. Bottom Line The string of earnings and revenue beat has allowed retail ETFs to surpass the broader market fund by wide margins in the same period. This is likely to continue given the solid trends in the space. This is especially true as consumer spending has started regaining momentum on a slow but recovering economy, better job and wage prospects, and low oil prices. Original Post

5 Consumer Discretionary Funds To Buy On A Spending Splurge

Consumer spending levels increased at the fastest pace in eight months this January. Not only consumers bought big-ticket items like cars and houses, but they also ramped up purchases of a range of goods that include other discretionary products. Rise in wages, decline in the jobless rate, cheap gasoline price and winter thaw helped spending levels to move north. Given the loosening of purse strings, investing in funds from the consumer discretionary sector may prove to be profitable as a major part of consumer expenditures go to this sector. What is more encouraging, income levels rose in January for the 10th straight month. This shows that consumers are in a position to spend more in the coming months. Consumer Expenditure Climbs in January The Commerce Department on Feb. 26 reported that personal spending increased 0.5% in January. The rise exceeded the consensus estimate of a rise by 0.3%. Moreover, a price index of consumer spending level went up in January. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index in the 12 months through January advanced 1.3%, the highest increase since Oct. 20 14. The core-PCE index that excludes food and energy prices also rose 1.7% in the 12 months through January, the largest increase since July 20 14. Telltale Signs of Consumption Pickup Retail sales are off to a good start this year, indicating strength in consumer spending. The Commerce Department said on Friday that sales at retail stores rose 0.2% in January. Consumers mostly bought big-ticket items while online store sales also moved north. The so-called core retail sales figure that excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services also increased 0.6% in January following a decline of 0.3% in December. Car sales too spiked in January. At a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”), car sales increased to 17.55 million units in Jan. 20 16 from 17.32 million units in Dec. 20 15, the highest SAAR for any January since 2006. Moreover, existing home sales for January hit the highest level since last July. Existing home sales increased 0.4% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.47 million. Rise in Wages, Low Fuel Price Boost Spending Higher wages and steady hiring helped consumers to step up their purchases in January. Average hourly wage growth increased to 2.5% in January compared with year-ago levels. Wages grew in January at the best pace in about six years. Wage growth picked up momentum after remaining almost flat for several years following the recession. Moreover, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.9% in January, the lowest since Feb. 2008. Many analysts believe that it is close to “full employment”. Cheap gasoline is also powering Americans’ ability to lift spending levels. Until recently, gasoline prices had hit a 12-year low across the Midwest. The Federal government had lowered its national average gasoline price forecast for this year by 5 cents to $ 1.98 a gallon. Separately, a return to normal winter temperatures also boosted spending. 5 Consumer Discretionary Funds to Buy Banking on these encouraging trends witnessed in January, it is expected that consumer spending levels will improve further in the coming months. Additionally, households’ purchase on a range of goods not only increased in January, but also their incomes rose too. According to the Commerce Department, personal income gained 0.5%, more than the consensus estimate of a 0.4% increase. More income generally translates into more expenditure. Moreover, U.S. consumer sentiment has already started showing signs of recovery in February. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for this month came in at 9 1.7, which was higher than the preliminary reading of 90.7. Given the healthy pattern of consumer spending, it will be wise to invest in funds linked to the consumer discretionary or cyclical sector. More money in consumers’ pocket will eventually increase spending on discretionary items. The consumer discretionary sector includes companies that sell nonessential goods and services. This sector includes companies involved in retail, automobiles, media, consumer services, consumer durables and leisure products. Here we have selected five such consumer discretionary or cyclical funds that boast a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), have positive three-year and five-year annualized returns, have minimum initial investment within $5,000 and carry a low expense ratio. Fidelity Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FSCPX ) seeks growth of capital. This fund invests a large portion of its assets in securities of companies involved in the manufacture and distribution of consumer discretionary products and services. FSCPX’s three-year and five-year annualized returns are 14.3% and 12.9%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.79% is lower than the category average of 1.4 1%. FSCPX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank # 1. Putnam Global Consumer Fund A (MUTF: PGCOX ) seeks growth of capital. This non-diversified fund not only invests a major portion of its assets in companies in the consumer staples space, but also invests in discretionary products and services industries. PGCOX’s three-year and five-year annualized returns are 10.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.26% is lower than the category average of 1.43%. This fund has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank # 1. Fidelity Select Retailing Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FSRPX ) invests the major portion of its assets in securities of firms involved in merchandising finished goods and services to consumers. FSRPX’s three-year and five-year annualized returns are 20. 1% and 18.4%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.8 1% is lower than the category average of 1.4 1%. This fund has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FSAVX ) seeks capital appreciation. The fund invests a large portion of its assets in companies involved in the manufacture or sale of automobiles, trucks, specialty vehicles, parts, tires and related services. FSAVX’s three-year and five-year annualized returns are 7.9% and 2.7%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.85% is lower than the category average of 1.4 1%. This fund has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Fidelity Select Multimedia Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FBMPX ) seeks capital appreciation. The fund invests a major portion of its assets in companies engaged in the production, sale and distribution of goods or services used in the broadcast and media industries. FBMPX’s three-year and five-year annualized returns are 1 1.2% and 12.4%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.8 1% is lower than the category average of 1.4 1%. This fund has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Original post