Author Archives: Scalper1

BlackRock Seeks To Ride The Gold ETF Rally

Sluggish growth in China since the beginning of the year, the oil market turbulence and concerns over global growth slowdown have lifted the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The weakness in the global financial markets has helped the precious metal to recover its sheen in 2016. Gold has gained more than 16% year to date. The jump in gold prices was also supported by plunging interest rates on a global scale. With the Fed not expected to raise interest rates in the near term, the rally is expected to continue. Given the tailwinds, it’s not surprising that BlackRock (NYSE: BLK ) has chosen to increase its stake in gold. But what’s surprising is that to do so, it has opted for a competitor’s ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ), instead of its own product, the iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: IAU ). As per the SEC filing , BlackRock has increased its holding in GLD to 13%, worth almost $4 billion. This is a massive increase from a 5% stake disclosed in a regulatory filing last month. GLD is the largest and most popular ETF in the gold space, with AUM of $31.3 billion and average daily volume of about 8.1 million shares. The fund reflects the performance of the price of gold bullion. Its expense ratio comes in at 0.40%. The fund currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook. In comparison, IAU has AUM of $7.7 billion and trades in solid volume of more than 7.5 million shares a day, on average. The ETF charges 25 bps in annual fees. Like GLD, this ETF offers exposure to the day-to-day movement of the price of gold bullion and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook. BlackRock’s gold ETF made headlines earlier this month when it had to temporarily suspend creations. As per a Reuters report, it sold $296 million in shares of the exchange-traded fund without properly registering them with the SEC. After recognizing the slip, BlackRock stopped selling new shares of the fund. Though this is not the first time an asset manager has invested in a competitor’s product and included it in the portfolio, BlackRock’s choice of increasing its holding in GLD emphasizes the craze for gold in the market. While IAU has a lower expense ratio as compared to GLD, GLD trades in much higher volumes, keeping the bid/ask spread low, and has a much larger asset base. Original Post

ETFs To Watch Post Fed Meeting

As expected, the Fed kept the short-term interest rates steady in the 0.25-0.50% band in its meeting and dialed back its projection for this year’s hikes. The central bank now expects federal funds rate to rise to 0.875% by the end of the year, implying two lift-offs, compared with 1.375% that signals four rate hikes. The cautious approach came on the heels of increased market volatility, global growth concerns, and softness in exports and business investments. Given the circumstances, the Fed lowered the economic growth outlook for the year to 2.2% from 2.4%. However, it stated that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace amid global slowdown. This is especially true as unemployment dropped to an eight-year low of 4.9% and inflation climbed 2.3% in the 12 months through February, marking the biggest increase in more than three years, following the 2.2% increase in January. Further, cheap fuel will continue to lift consumers’ spending power, thereby, boosting economic growth. Notably, gas price has fallen by 46 cents from the year-ago period to an average of $1.96 per gallon that has resulted in about $1,000 more to spend at each household. Market Impact The move has led to a rally in the stock market with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching the highest levels of 2016. With this, the stocks are on track for the fifth consecutive week of gains. This is because lower rates will step up economic growth by reducing borrowing costs and lowering the risks associated with expanding businesses or starting new ones. Additionally, demand for high-yield securities returned with the Fed’s lowered rate hike outlook and the two-year Treasury yields logged the biggest one-day decline in six months while the 10-year Treasury yields hit 2% for the first time since late January. On the other hand, the WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, dropped to its lowest level since October. Given this, we have highlighted three ETFs that will likely benefit the most from the Fed’s move and a couple of ETFs that will be severely impacted. ETFs to Gain SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) Gold has been on a tear this year as increased market volatility has perked up demand for the yellow metal as a store of value and hedge against market turmoil. Additionally, the expectation for longer-than-expected low rates will continue to raise the appeal for the gold bullion. As a result, GLD, which tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, spiked 2.2% at the close on the day after the Fed rate announcement. GLD is the ultra-popular gold ETF with AUM of $31.3 billion and average daily volume of around 8.1 million shares a day. Expense ratio comes in at 0.40%. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: REM ) Mortgage REITs would benefit from lower rates as short-term rates would rise slower than the long-term rates thereby leading to a wide spread and higher profits for mREIT companies. The ultra-popular REM, with AUM of $759.2 million and average daily volume of around 1.2 million shares, gained 1.3% after the Fed meeting. It tracks the FTSE NAREIT All Mortgage Capped Index and holds 37 securities in its basket with large allocations to the top two firms – Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY ) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC ). These two firms collectively account for a combined 29.2% share while other securities hold less than 7.9% share. The fund charges investors 48 bps a year in fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) Low interest rates have made the high-yield corner of the fixed income world a hot investment area, drawing investors in huge numbers. HYG, in particular, could be an intriguing pick, charging investors 50 bps in fees per year. It is the largest and most liquid fund in the high yield bond space with AUM of $16.2 billion and average daily volume of more than 13.2 million shares. The fund tracks the iBoxx $ Liquid High Yield Index and holds 992 securities in the basket. Effective duration and average maturity are 3.99 and 4.83 years, respectively. HYG added 0.7% on the day and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating with a High risk outlook. ETFs to Lose PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA: UUP ) Lower interest rates will pull out capital from the country and lead to depreciation of the U.S. dollar. As such, UUP shed 1.1% on the day. The fund offers exposure to the greenback against a basket of six world currencies – euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. It follows the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index Futures Index Excess Return plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. So far, UUP has managed an asset base of $801.9 million while sees an average daily volume of around 1.6 million shares. It charges 80 bps in total fees and expenses, and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA: KRE ) As the rates are expected to remain low for long, financials stocks will take a hit. In particular, the ultra popular KRE, having AUM of $1.9 billion and average daily volume of 6.2 million shares, has lost 1.1% following the Fed meet. The product follows the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index, charging investors 35 basis points a year in fees. Holding 93 securities in its basket, the fund is widely spread out across each security with none holding more than 4.46% share. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a High risk outlook. Original Post

Your Strategy Will Sometimes Lag, And That’s OK

By Roger Nusbaum, AdvisorShares ETF Strategist Barron’s featured an ETF Roundtable that focused on smart beta funds . The actual discussion wasn’t all that interesting, but there was an important general point made about investment strategies. Gray: Value investing is driven in part by behavioral biases-otherwise, why wouldn’t everyone just be Warren Buffett and buy cheap stocks and hold them? They don’t because if you hold concentrated, cheap-stock portfolios, there will be multiple years when you’ll get your face ripped off. You need clients that understand how true active strategies work over the long term. Indeed, the cheapest U.S. stocks have trailed more expensive growth stocks for nine years now. Whistler: The challenge with strategic beta, or any factor-based investment, is that they can underperform a traditional cap-weighted index for quite a long period-two, three, even five years. For purposes of this blog post, value investing is merely an example. There are plenty of valid strategies that could replace value in the excerpt. The passage is important, because it accepts as an inevitability that any given strategy will have periods where it lags. Value has lagged for the entire bull market until this year, according to another Barron’s article from this weekend, but there is no sentiment that somehow value is not a valid investment strategy. Value or growth, buy and hold no matter what, indexing or passive and so on and on are all capable of getting the job done. Underperformance for a couple of years, although completely normal, potentially breeds impatience, which can lead to chasing the performance of what just did well in the expectation that it will continue to do well. In simplistic terms, something that just outperformed last year has a good chance of underperforming this year. The person who perpetually chases last year’s winner has a high likelihood of always lagging, which does not have to be ruinous, but does make things harder over the long term in terms of keeping pace with the projection of “the number.” My preference is to maintain exposure to various market segments: small cap/large cap, growth/value, foreign/domestic, high dividend/no or low dividend and so on. And like any approach out there, there are times where my preference outperforms and times where it lags. More important than returns are savings rates and the avoidance of self-destructive investment behaviors. At a high level, everyone knows they need to save money, but doing it is the hard part. People who save 10%, 15% or more are making things easier for their future selves and are acting on the thing they have far more control over – saving money, versus the whims of the capital markets. Chasing previous top performers is just one of countless behavioral things that people do to themselves. My hope in revisiting these building blocks, especially when others in the field say essentially the same thing, is that hopefully, more market participants will come to realize that how they are doing in 2016 simply won’t matter in the long run. As I often mention in this context, “Without looking, how’d you do in the first quarter of 2012?” The only way someone is likely to know is if something catastrophic happened to their portfolio. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: To the extent that this content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such securities. AdvisorShares is a sponsor of actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and holds positions in all of its ETFs. This document should not be considered investment advice, and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any products mentioned. Investment in securities carries a high degree of risk, which may result in investors losing all of their invested capital. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results. To learn more about the risks with actively managed ETFs, visit our website AdvisorShares.com .