Author Archives: Scalper1

Closed-End Fund Craziness

By Alan Gula, CFA Last week, Barack Obama became the first U.S. president to visit Cuba in nearly nine decades. As you may recall, President Obama announced that the United States would re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba in December of 2014. Of course, investors immediately began searching for ways to profit from the re-opening of trade and travel with Cuba. Some investors thought they had uncovered a gem called The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (NASDAQ: CUBA ), a closed-end fund (CEF). After all, the ticker seemingly told you all you had to know. From December 16, 2014 to December 23, 2014, CUBA rose 107%. The fund went from a discount of over 10% of its underlying net asset value (NAV) to a massive 70% premium . Except there was one big problem: CUBA had little direct exposure to Cuba. Close, but no cigar. By mid-January 2016, the fund had lost over 60% of its value and was once again trading at a discount to its NAV. CEFs, like CUBA, have a set number of shares outstanding. Therefore, supply and demand forces determine whether the shares trade at a premium or discount to NAV. CEFs tend to be relatively small and illiquid, so their holders are predominantly individual investors. As a result, CEF share prices are heavily influenced by the herding of retail investors – perfectly illustrated by the CUBA episode. However, CUBA is an especially small CEF. Such pricing anomalies would never occur with the larger funds run by prominent financial institutions, right? High-Yield CEFs In June of 2014, near the height of the “reach for yield” mania, I recommended selling two high-yielding PIMCO closed-end funds . At the time, the PIMCO High Income Fund (NYSE: PHK ) and the PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund (NYSE: PGP ) were trading at absurd 57% and 66% premiums to their NAVs, respectively. Over the next 15 months, PHK and PGP both lost roughly 40% of their values (distributions included but not reinvested). The premium for PHK evaporated and the premium for PGP hit a more reasonable but still elevated 18%. But wait… The herd is back for more! The premiums have since re-inflated for both funds. In fact, the premium on PGP recently reached an unprecedented 103%. It seems as though many folks are using the snapback rally in the credit market as an excuse to bid up several closed-end funds with impunity. The following table is a list of several CEFs trading at high premiums: The premiums on Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (NYSE: ECC ) and the DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund (NYSE: DBL ) have recently surged to their highest levels ever. The Babson Capital Corporate Investors (NYSE: MCI ) is rated five stars by Morningstar and has a great track record, but no fund is worth a 20%-plus premium. The PIMCO Municipal Income Fund (NYSE: PMF ), PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II (NYSE: PCK ), PIMCO New York Municipal Income Fund II (NYSE: PNI ), and PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund III (NYSE: PZC ) are all trading at very high premiums. No matter how bullish you are on muni-bonds, there’s no reason to pay up this much for exposure. The financial markets may not make sense all of the time, but, as you can tell, craziness is the norm in CEF land. When a CEF you own trades at a small premium to its NAV, you should at least consider selling it. When that premium exceeds 15%… hit the bid and get out as if you’re fleeing a communist dictatorship.

Zendesk Attracting Larger Customers For Its Business Software

When you’re “a small player in a large market that is still new, fragmented and growing,” a key to success is “staying one step ahead of the competition,” and that’s what workplace software developer Zendesk ( ZEN ) is doing, said Summit Research analyst Jonathan Kees. Following the upbeat commentary in Kees’ research note, issued Sunday, Zendesk stock was up a fraction in early afternoon trading in the stock market today , but it’s still more than 25% below a 17-month high at 27.52, touched Dec. 4. Like other players in the infamous Software Sag of 2016, Zendesk fell hard in January and early February, hitting a 21-month low of 14.39 low on Feb. 9. Zendesk, which specializes in customer relationship management (CRM) software, went public in May 2014, priced at 9. Initiating coverage, Summit Research gave Zendesk a buy rating with a 25 price target. Zendesk is “executing on its growth strategy in a largely untapped $7.6 billion market, moving successfully toward positive (free cash flow) and profitability, and maintaining revenue growth in the 30%-plus (rate) over the next several years,” Kees said. “Most of Zendesk’s customers are SMBs (small to medium-size businesses), though the company has been moving upmarket, with customer deals with more than 100 seats now almost a third of monthly recurring revenues. Among other benefits, larger customers buy more, tend to purchase annual contracts and raise overall ARPU (average revenue per user). Founded in 2007, Zendesk is the oldest of the vendors targeting SMBs.” Big rivals such as  Microsoft ( MSFT ),   Salesforce.com ( CRM ) and Oracle ( ORCL ) also target midsize businesses. Shares of all three were down a fraction Monday afternoon. “As ZEN moves upmarket, (it) faces deep-pocketed competitors like Salesforce.com and Oracle that can easily bundle customer engagement functionality with their total offerings,” Kees warned. Zendesk is targeting positive free cash flow by 2017, profitability by 2020 and $1 billion in sales by 2020, he noted. For its Q1 ending Thursday, 12 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect a consensus 10-cent loss, flat with a year ago, on revenue up 56% to $66 million. Zendesk CFO Alan Black is expected to leave this year. Kees said, “We are always a little cautious and little worried when a CFO leaves a company. However, we are cautiously optimistic Zendesk will take appropriate steps to identify a CFO who can take the company to the next level ($1 billion in revenue by 2020).”

Apple Dividend Hike May Be Next Possible Catalyst For Stock

With Apple ‘s ( AAPL ) spring product launch out of the way, Wall Street’s attention has shifted to the company’s annual capital allocation plan, including an expected dividend increase. Apple CEO Tim Cook has committed to raising the company’s dividend annually. The question now is how much that is going to be. RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani thinks Apple could raise its dividend by 10% to 15% to get its yield above 2%. Apple also could boost its stock buyback program to $40 billion to $50 billion a year, compared with $35 billion last year, he said in a report Sunday. The buyback would enable Apple to drive EPS growth of 4% or higher in fiscal 2016 and beyond, Daryanani said. He rates Apple stock as outperform, with a price target of 130. Apple was down a fraction to 105.50 in early afternoon trading on the stock market today . Apple is expected to announce its new capital allocation program when it reports March quarter results in late April. No date has been set for the fiscal-second-quarter earnings report. Apple has increased its dividend every year for the past three years, with an average increase of about 11%. Its current quarterly dividend is 52 cents a share. Earlier this month, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster  predicted  Apple would raise its dividend by 5% to 10%. Last week at a media event at company headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., Apple announced a new 4-inch smartphone (iPhone SE), a 9.7-inch iPad Pro tablet, a lower starting price for the Apple Watch, new watch bands and several software updates. RELATED: Apple’s Product Launch: What The Stock Market Loved And Hated Apple’s Cheap iPhone SE Raises Profit Margin Concerns .