Author Archives: Scalper1

Details Of New Amazon Kindle Leaked Ahead Of Release This Week

Ahead of the expected launch this week of the newest  Amazon.com ( AMZN ) Kindle e-book reader, details of the device have been leaked, according to  online magazine Motherboard . The new device is going to be called Oasis and will be slightly wider than prior models, Motherboard reported. The device will have the same pixel density — 300 pixels per inch — as the Kindle Voyage but will be more than 20% lighter than prior models. The Verge, a tech news site, says that the new model will include a rechargable battery case  that will give the new Kindle 20 months of standby time. The report also noted that the leak could be a fake, but it “would be a pretty extensive one.” Seattle-based Amazon.com did not immediately return a request for comment. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos last week tweeted that the device would be introduced this week. Amazon stock was up nearly 1% in afternoon trading on the stock market today , near 600. The company has an IBD Composite Rating of 79, where 99 is the highest. The CR tracks major metrics such as earnings and sales growth.

SAP’s Strong Pipeline Into Q2 Keeps Stock Near Recent High

While SAP ( SAP ) late Friday preannounced Q1 earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street views, investors Monday were buoyed by the German enterprise software company’s assurances that its pipeline is flowing strongly into Q2. SAP stock was up a fraction, near 77, in afternoon trading in the stock market today, just 7% off an 18-month high of 82.70 set July 25. In its release Friday, SAP CEO Bill McDermott said he expects “increasing momentum” in 2016. Shares of rival  Salesforce.com ( CRM ) were down a fraction Monday afternoon, but rival  Oracle ( ORCL ) was up a fraction. With final Q1 results scheduled for release April 20 before the open, SAP issued preliminary earnings of 0.64 euros per share minus items (73 cents at Monday’s exchange rate), up 9%, where Wall Street analysts expected 0.70 euros. It said revenue rose 5% to 4.73 billion euros (or $5.39 billion), short of the 4.85 billion euros and 4.82 billion euros that Evercore ISI and Wall Street projected, respectively, observed Evercore ISI in a research note. One euro was worth about $1.14 Monday. In a research note Sunday, Evercorse ISI analyst Kirk Materne said he’s looking for “more color” from SAP on April 20,  but “we expect the (Q1) license shortfall and comments around a slower start in the Americas are going to pressure shares on Monday despite SAP reiterating its full-year guidance and the comments around a ‘strong (Q2) pipeline.’ ” Materne maintained a buy rating on SAP stock, but said “we continue to favor Oracle ( ORCL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) in  mega-cap software.” RBC Capital Markets analyst Ross MacMillan maintained a sector perform rating on SAP stock but lowered his price target to 78 from 81. MacMillan noted that SAP’s Q1 cloud bookings of 140 million euros rose 22% year over year, and more than 25% in constant currency. “We view this as slightly disappointing” following Q4’s 75% “organic growth,” less than 50% in constant currency, “although do note that (Q1) is a seasonally weak quarter,” MacMillan said. “SAP also added over 500 new S4HANA customers, of which around 30% (i.e. about 150) are net new. While well below about 1,400 customer adds in (Q4), we would expect (Q1) to be seasonally weaker.” He said weakness in the energy sector and “some pull forward of demand” in Q4 due to S4HANA product promotions drove SAP’s softness in Q1. “As a result, we think there is limited read-through for other companies in enterprise software.” Got that, Salesforce.com sellers? “SAP’s fundamental growth drivers are rock solid, from our best-in-class S4HANA applications to our completeness of vision in the cloud,” said SAP’s McDermott in Friday’s release. “We expect increasing momentum as the year progresses, fully consistent with our guidance for the full year. SAP continues to be a highly profitable growth company.” HANA is SAP’s linchpin business software suite. CFO Luka Mucic said the Americas, dragged by Brazil, “got off to a slower start.”

Dual ETF Momentum April Update

Scott’s Investments provides a free “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet, which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum . Antonacci’s book , Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk, also details Dual Momentum as a total portfolio strategy. My Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet is available here and the objective is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum. Invested signals also require positive absolute momentum, hence the term “Dual Momentum.” Relative momentum is gauged by the 12-month total returns of each ETF. The 12-month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of the iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ). In order to have an “Invested” signal, the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total return greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter, which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns. An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12-month (“3/6/12″) total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF. Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″). The test results were posted in the 2013 Year in Review and the January 2015 Update . Below are the four portfolios along with current signals: Return Data Provided by Finviz Click to enlarge As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future. Disclosure: None