Author Archives: Scalper1

Will Twitter Show A Reversal In User Declines With Q1 Earnings?

Under pressure from slowing user growth, Twitter ( TWTR ) is set to report first-quarter earnings after the market close Tuesday. It’s a busy week for social networking stocks, with Facebook ( FB ) reporting Wednesday and LinkedIn ( LNKD ) on Thursday. Twitter reports during a rough period for the company. Revenue growth has declined year over year for the past six quarters, and user growth has declined the past four quarters. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Twitter to report Q1 revenue of $607.8 million, up 39% year over year, with earnings per share minus items rising 43%, to 10 cents. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney said data from research firm ComScore was “slightly negative” for Twitter, indicating a slowdown in unique visitors from Q4. He also said a survey of ad professionals conducted by RBC and Ad Age showed mixed results for Twitter. “We are incrementally more cautious on the stock’s prospects as a result,” wrote Mahaney, who has a sector perform rating on Twitter stock and a price target of 23. Since Twitter reported Q1 2015 earnings that revealed trouble ahead, the stock has plunged to 17 from 51. Twitter stock closed Monday at 17.09, down a fraction. In Q4, average monthly active users at Twitter rose 9% year over year, to 320 million, about 3 million less than Wall Street had expected. The Q4 growth was the same as Q3. Growth has cooled from 18% in Q1 2015, 15% in Q2 and 11% in Q3. The slowdown continues despite a series of new features Twitter has rolled out in the past year, including video tool Periscope and Moments. The company has overhauled management, starting with the return of co-founder Jack Dorsey as CEO in October. Dorsey is also the founder and CEO of payment processing firm Square ( SQ ). Facebook Q1 earnings come after the close Wednesday. The consensus on Facebook revenue is $5.25 billion, up 48%. Analysts expect EPS ex items to hit 62 cents a share, also up 48%. LinkedIn reports after the close Thursday. The stock bombed 44% to a three-year low after LinkedIn posted Q4 earnings on Feb. 5, as Q1 guidance widely missed estimates. LinkedIn acknowledged that a reshuffling of product strategy will impact short-term revenue growth in favor of the long term. The consensus on revenue is $829.5 million, up 39%. EPS is figured at 60 cents, up 5%.

How Charter Broadband Conditions May Set Bar For Comcast

Charter Communications ( CHTR ) will not be allowed  to charge data usage-based prices or impose data caps on broadband customers for seven years as part of proposed conditions set by federal regulators  for its acquisition of Time Warner Cable ( TWC ). Whatever conditions Charter agrees to might set the bar for Comcast ( CMCSA ) down the road, analysts say. The Department of Justice on Monday cleared Charter’s purchase of TWC, while the Federal Communications Commission moved closer to approval.  FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler is circulating proposed conditions to the five-member agency. California regulators are expected to green light the purchase in mid-May. Charter snapped up TWC after regulators thwarted Comcast’s takeover of Time Warner Cable in early 2015. Conditions set on the Charter-TWC deal might have implications for Comcast if it seeks another major acquisition, such as acquiring T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) or Sprint ( S ). Comcast has filed to be a possible bidder in a government auction of radio spectrum owned by local TV stations. That auction began in late March. Comcast has been testing data caps in an increasing number of markets. “New Charter will not be permitted to charge usage-based prices or impose data caps,” Wheeler said in a statement. “Second, New Charter will be prohibited from charging interconnection fees, including to online video providers, which deliver large volumes of internet traffic to broadband customers.” Video streamer Netflix did not oppose Charter’s purchase of TWC, but it had lobbied against the Comcast-TWC deal. Charter can’t strike agreements with programmers that would make it more difficult for streaming services like Netflix ( NFLX ) to obtain content, according to a DOJ filing in federal court. Charter has also agreed to buy privately held Bright House Networks. The two deals would make Charter the No. 2 cable TV firm behind Comcast.

Generating Income From Unlikely Sources: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

SA Dividends, Income & Retirement Editor Robyn Conti here, subbing in for Gil, who’s observing Passover this week. I’ll do my best to fill his very talented and knowledgeable shoes, and continue to keep you up to date daily on the latest FA analysis and news here on Seeking Alpha. Generating income these days is more difficult than ever due to the low rate environment, but that hasn’t stopped masses of investors from jumping with both feet into income investments that are too costly relative to their yields. Joel Johnson from True-Bearing.com emphasizes the importance of helping income-oriented clients invest for specific outcomes, and talks about how those solutions are more likely to be found in more “off the beaten path” investments, which present profit-generating opportunities for advisors: Outcome-oriented investing, once dominated by institutions offering low cost defined benefit plans, is a challenging job… Investment advisors can now create risk-aware portfolios designed to meet the specific income needs of their clients. The portfolios contain funds that invest in non-traditional sources of income. The portfolios should feature investments that are not overly expensive. Investing in themes is integral to generating alpha and hedging your portfolio against macroeconomic changes…” Harry Long’s article on ETF dividend strategies dovetails nicely, proposing several ideas for seeking out alternative income instruments while avoiding volatility. In contrast, on the subject of outflows from income investments, if you or your clients have muni bond funds coming due in the next few months, now’s the time to take action. SA contributor Patrick Luby highlights an historical summer trend in muni bond redemptions , per Bloomberg: … this year is expected to follow the same pattern, with $38.2 billion rolling off in June, $33.5 billion in July, and $29.9 billion in August. (The monthly average this year is just under $26 billion.) Forecast redemptions include maturing bonds as well as bonds that have been advance refunded or current refunded and are expected to be called away. For those fond of quick math, that’s more than $100 billion in redemptions — quite a round, and a rather hefty, number. Luby points out that, while reinvesting principal is generally an attractive benefit of owning individual muni bonds, due to the current rate situation and economic uncertainty, advisors and their clients may be unsure how to, or even if they want to, reinvest. He suggests those who have bonds coming due (maturing or pre-refunded) in the next several months consider the following: Changing asset allocation by using redeemed municipal bond proceeds to invest in another asset class will cause a shift in the overall portfolio risk profile, and should not be done unless called for by the investment plan. Don’t wait for the principal to be returned to you to consider what to do. Due to the volume of principal that will be seeking reinvestment, muni bond investors may find themselves competing with each other for a limited supply of appropriate bonds. Investors in high-tax jurisdictions with a preference for in-state double-exempt bonds may find their options even more severely reduced. Consider making provisions for reinvestment in advance of your bond’s redemption date. Pay attention now to the new issue calendar for appropriate issues that will settle after the maturity date of your maturing/refunded bond. As an alternative to individual bonds, you may wish to consider using a municipal bond ETF to maintain asset class exposure while waiting for a suitable replacement security. (To learn more about doing this, read my recent article about using duration as a guide to selecting municipal bond ETFs, available here .) These are definitely items of importance for advisors and muni bond investors to keep an eye on should redemptions proceed as forecast. Finally, since there appears to be quite a hefty focus on oil, where it’s headed, and the frothy politics involved therein, here are several stories offering a variety of views and insights on the volatile commodity: Daniel Jones takes a particularly bullish view on oil . However, Simply Investing says don’t expect the rally to last for long . The Heisenberg breaks down the nefarious geopolitics of oil price movements . Resident SA commodity expert Andrew Hecht explains how to read the “tea leaves” for crude following the OPEC stalemate in Doha earlier this month.