Author Archives: Scalper1
Have 3D Systems, Stratasys Stocks Traveled Too Far Too Fast?
With a strong leap in the stock prices of 3D Systems ( DDD ) and Stratasys ( SSYS ), some analysts question if the rise was too far too fast. Needham analyst James Ricchiuti on Tuesday lowered his rating on 3D Systems to hold from buy, saying further upside in the stock over the near term will be challenging. He says the turnaround at 3D Systems should be more gradual than the market is anticipating. It follows a recent downgrade of 3D Systems and Stratasys from Citi based on stock price valuations of both companies. Shares of 3D Systems and Stratasys were hammered in 2015 as both posted quarter after quarter of disappointing earnings and sales. This year, Stratasys stock has nearly doubled since hitting a six-year low of 14.88 three months ago. 3D Systems has nearly triple since hitting a five-year low of 6 three months ago. “3D Systems shares are now above our 12-month target price,” Ricchiuti wrote in a research note. “With the stock trading at 32 times our 2017 EPS estimate, the market appears to be pricing healthy upside to estimates.” The rise of both stocks were partly fueled by the Q4 earnings reports of both companies that beat expectations, suggesting the worst might be over and raising hopes the top two 3D printer makers are poised for a rebound. But that wasn’t the message that 3D Systems and Stratasys tried to signal, as comments from company executives during the conference call were of a cautious tone about the road ahead. 3D Systems got a further bounce when it announced Vyomesh Joshi as CEO on April 4. Joshi had been executive vice president of the imaging and printing business of HP Inc. ( HPQ ), formerly Hewlett-Packard before its split. HP plans to enter the 3D printer market this year. 3D Systems stock was near 18, down 2%, in afternoon trading in the stock market today . Stratasys was trading near 26, up a fraction. 3D Systems is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 5 and Stratasys on May 9, both before the market open. The consensus on 3D Systems is revenue of $156.3 million, down 3% year over year, and earnings per share minus items of 5 cents, flat, as polled by Thomson Reuters. Stratasys sales are seen rising 4.5% to $164.8 million as it swings to a 4-cent per-share loss from a 4-cent profit. “Notwithstanding solid sequential improvement in Q4 from eight of the publicly traded 3D printing companies, we believe business remains challenging compounded by the normal seasonal weakness experienced in the March quarter,” Ricchiuti wrote.
First Solar Q1 Sales Expected To Double; 2017 Could Mark EPS Trough
Wall Street’s call for No. 1 solar installer First Solar ( FSLR ) to exceed $3.50 in 2017 earnings might be “too high,” but that year also could mark a trough for the company’s profit, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah said Tuesday. Shah reiterated his buy rating — while also cutting his price target to 80 from 86 — on First Solar stock ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings report, due out after the close Wednesday. First Solar’s annual earnings are expected to dip 20% to $4.30 in 2016 and by another 18% to $3.53 in 2017, according to the consensus of 21 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. But Shah sees the company returning to earnings growth in 2018. “We believe First Solar should be in a position to achieve $4.35-$5 (earnings per share) in 2020 in a base case scenario, or as high as $7.30-$8.50 in 2020 in a bull case scenario,” he wrote in a research report. The company’s EPS jumped 37% in 2015 to $5.37. For Q1, the consensus expects First Solar to report $958.3 million in sales, more than doubling year over year, and 90 cents EPS, swinging from a per-share loss of 60 cents in the year-earlier quarter. Both metrics are seen dipping in Q2. But Shah calls First Solar “a relative safe haven in the cleantech sector,” citing a strong balance sheet and robust near-term outlook. For 2016, First Solar’s earlier guidance called for 8% year-over-year sales growth. The company has a 3-gigawatt backlog for 2017-2020 comprised of 2 GW in system sales and 1 GW in module sales. Recent bookings have shifted in conjunction with First Solar’s earlier guidance for 80% modules and 20% systems in incremental bookings. Shah expects First Solar to book 2 GW-3.5 GW in system business for 2017-2020, while shipping 17 GW of modules into internal systems/third module customers. In early afternoon trading on the stock market today , First Solar stock was up 1%, near 61. Shares are down 8% this year but have fared better than IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group, which is down 27%. First Solar tops the group in terms of market value, with residential installer SolarCity ( SCTY ) and rival solar developer SunPower ( SPWR ) trailing distantly. Together, First Solar and SunPower sponsor yieldco 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ), fourth in market value.