Hedging Via Index Funds: 5 Winning Funds And 5 Surprising Losers
Summary I looked at a large collection of index ETFs, calculating their correlations with the S&P 500. I found five winning hedges and five losing hedges. Two ETFs in particular showed almost zero correlation to the US stock market: EEM and TAN. During the 2008 bear market, I lived in both Taiwan and China – at separate times, of course. While in Taiwan, I often heard complaints from the Taiwanese regarding poor American business practices: “Your banks went and screwed everything up for everyone.” Yet, while in China, I heard no such complaints. The people there seemed happy with their economy. The difference? Correlation. Market connection. While today, the US stock market is strongly correlated to that of China’s, a number of years ago it wasn’t. Perhaps China’s economy just recently became big enough to sync to the US economy. In that case, perhaps some other countries out there have stock markets uncorrelated to ours. If so, index funds on those markets would provide good hedging opportunities for bear markets, market corrections, and market crashes. My last study on investments uncorrelated to the US market unveiled some surprising results – you can read it here . Now, I intend to tackle a request from one of the readers of that last article: (click to enlarge) The request was to find CEFs, index ETFs, and sector ETFs uncorrelated to the S&P 500. In fact, these are actually three requests. I’m going to be tackling the question of index ETFs in this article, perhaps moving onto the former in the next article; and the sector ETF request is easily tackled – no sector ETFs are uncorrelated to the market. So, the main question is, “What index ETFs are uncorrelated with the S&P 500.” Immediately, my mind turns to indexes in certain countries. Later, I will show my findings on which countries have stock markets uncorrelated with the US market. But I will also look at other indexes unrelated to geography. Correlation First, we must define correlated. In a previous article, I spent some time talking about the theory behind correlation determinations. I direct you to that article if you wish to learn more. For now, let me just explain how I determined whether an investment was correlated to the S&P 500. I imported index data, ^GSPC, via Yahoo Finance using R, statistical software. Then, I imported various index ETFs that I thought might have low correlations. I ran correlation calculations on the index ETFs vs. ^GSPC, using a 5-year time frame. Any investment with a correlation between -0.3 and 0.3 was considered uncorrelated. In this way, the index ETFs chosen as Winners (those suitable for hedging) change a maximum of 20% per significant market move. The Close Calls, in contrast, change in the range of 20-40% when the market moves. The idea is to compose a portfolio of index ETFs that can act as a hedging portion of your portfolio. The end result was four ETFs uncorrelated with the market, with one index ETF in particular having two near-zero correlation funds. Some of the Winners and Close Calls may surprise you. Winners iShares MSCI BRIC ETF (NYSEARCA: BKF ) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) . Money has been flowing out of emerging markets, yet emerging markets might just offer a strong hedging opportunity. Of particular interest is the slight, but significant, difference between BKF and EEM. While these two ETFs are strongly correlated, EEM has a near-zero correlation with the S&P 500, while BKF has a -0.25 correlation. Overall, I don’t think this difference is very important for most investors. Their yields are approximately the same: 2.4% for EEM and 3% for BKF. Either investment would be a good hedging tool, allowing exposure to emerging markets and providing dividends. However, the holdings of these funds differ to some extent. BKF heavily weights the its major holdings, with 40% of its holdings in China and 30% being financial services. Its biggest holdings are Chinese financial services, such as banks and insurance companies. In contrast, EEM more evenly disperses its holdings. In addition, because it is not forced to invest in BRIC countries, the fund’s two biggest holdings are Korean and Taiwanese companies: Samsung ( OTC:SSNLF ) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM ). Also, in stark contrast to BKF, which only hold stock in developed countries, EEM dedicates 30% of its portfolio to developed markets, which equates to more exposure to technology stocks in this case. iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWY ) : Surprisingly, this Korean ETF is uncorrelated to the US market. As you would expect, 40% of this fund’s holdings is dedicated to tech stocks, which can promise decent growth. The yield here is rather low, at 1.22%. Samsung, which makes up 30% of this ETF, has been underperformer in EWY’s portfolio for the past few years. If this were an ex-Samsung ETF, I could see it easily outperforming the fund as it is currently composed. Nevertheless, EWY is a good opportunity for both hedging and profiting from South Korea’s economy, which is set for a comeback. iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (NYSEARCA: EWM ) : Malaysia was another country I checked, and I found this particular fund to be both uncorrelated to the S&P 500 and quite similar to the emerging market funds in terms of its portfolio allocation. EWM is 30% financial services, with Malaysian banks as its main holdings. This fund also gives you significant exposure to Malaysia’s utilities and consumer industries, and has a sweet yield of 3.76% Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA: TAN ) : This ETF tracks the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. The holdings are about half US-based. Unlike the above funds, this ETF’s portfolio consists mainly of small and mid-cap stocks. TAN has a near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 – 0.04, to be exact – which is likely a product of it being cut both across a sector and across geography. The main countries involved in this portfolio are, unsurprisingly, the US and China. With a 2.15% yield, this is a great hedging opportunity, and is a suitable choice if you’re bullish on solar energy, which seems poised for a rebound since its fall in 2011. Close Calls In this section, we look at investments that made 20-40% movements in response to market moves. These are “Close Calls” – ETFs that you’d think would be uncorrelated to the general market, but which actually show a small or moderate correlation. They might still be good investments, but are not appropriate for hedging. iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWW ) : With its disgusting ticker name, EWW is one of those geography-based index ETFs that I thought might be uncorrelated to the US market. Of course, that was wishful thinking, as Mexico and the US have a strong trade connection. However, the correlation is quite low, at 0.34. With Mexico becoming stronger in the world economy, EWW is a decent emerging market investment vehicle, but should not be used for hedging. iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSEARCA: INP ) : Listed as an ETN, INP tracks the MSCI India Total Return Index. India still shows a correlation with the US market, making this ETN a poor choice for hedging. However, depending on your outlook of the country, this might be a good choice. Personally, I’d choose BKF over this, as you’d still have exposure to India, be more diversified across geography and gain dividend payments. Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: HAO ) : While all the China ETFs I checked were strongly correlated to the US market, this fund consisting of small-cap Chinese stocks shows a much lower correlation than the rest. If you want to invest in China, but fear a drop in the US market could damage your portfolio, HAO is a bit safer than other Chinese ETFs. Strange that a small-cap ETF would be safer, but for Americans, that seems to be the case. Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FENY ) : The energy market seems to be doing its own thing, regardless of the market. However, the market is generally moving upward while energy prices drop. Thus, checking the correlation between the two might be enlightening. The correlation between FENY and the market is small, but it’s there. A general market decline, then, should predict a slight increase in the energy market. FENY might be a good choice if you’re expecting a market correction or crash, and if you’re speculating that the energy market has hit its true bottom. Global Commodity Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: CRBQ ) : Much like the energy market, the commodity market has been moving opposite to the S&P 500, but appears rather uncorrelated. In fact, the correlation here is -0.44. The dollar, which is correlated to the market, is inversely correlated to the commodity market, which explains this moderate correlation. With its low liquidity, you should only buy this if you have no better way of investing in commodities and want to hold this ETF for the long term. I Want Your Input Obviously, I simply don’t have the time to cover every industry. While reading this article, you probably thought of at least one investment that should have gone in my “Winners” section. Let me know about it in the comments section below. Request a Statistical Study If you would like for me to run a statistical study on a specific aspect of a specific stock, commodity, or market, just request so in the comments section below. Alternatively, send me a message or email.