Author Archives: Scalper1

The Forensic Accounting ETF: Where The Bodies Are Buried

Forensic accountant John Del Vecchio likes to joke that he knows “where the bodies are buried” in the financial statements. In his line of work, you have to. John is a professional short seller and the author of What’s Behind the Numbers , an excellent primer on short selling I reviewed two years ago. I call Del Vecchio the Horatio Caine of Wall Street. With single-minded purpose, he looks for the bad guys that are cooking the books and then brings their misdeeds to the light of day. Or more accurately, he looks for companies that are using aggressive accounting techniques to mask poor operating performance and then shorts them. Eventually, management runs out of ways to hide slowing performance, and when they do, the jig is up and the stock takes a tumble. This is where it gets interesting. If Del Vecchio’s sleuthing can effectively catch earnings manipulators in the act, then it only stands to reason that it can also be used to identify good companies with high quality earnings and conservative accounting. And that brings me to the WeatherStorm Forensic Account Long-Short ETF (NYSEARCA: FLAG ) , which has been recently revamped and is now based on a new proprietary index developed by Del Vecchio. “FLAG” is exactly what it sounds like. It’s an ETF that looks for accounting red flags, such as accelerated revenue recognition and manipulation of inventory and receivables numbers. But that’s only part of the story. FLAG’s strategy combines six distinct forensic accounting and valuation factors for scoring and ranking stocks. These factors cover: cash flow quality, revenue recognition, earnings quality, shareholder yield, earnings surprise and valuation. The FLAG ETF runs a 130/30 long/short portfolio, investing 130% of its capital in stocks that rate high for earnings quality based on Del Vecchio’s metrics and maintaining a 30% short position in stocks with low ratings. The net result is that you’re buying the highest-quality companies at reasonable prices… and you’re shorting the expensive junk. While still rare in mutual funds and ETFs designed for regular investors, long/short strategies have long been used by hedge fund managers. So in FLAG, you’re essentially getting a hedge-fund strategy in an ETF wrapper. Let’s take a look at FLAG’s portfolio. As of 9/30/2015, FLAG was long 132 companies and short 41. The average P/E and P/S ratios on the long positions were 15.62 and 0.79, respectively. The averages on the short portfolio were a much higher 27.61 and 1.85. So, FLAG is clearly practicing what it preaches by owning relatively cheap stocks and shorting expensive stocks. Breaking it down by sector, technology stocks make up the largest net long position at 19.0% of the portfolio. 23.7% of the long portfolio is invested in tech and -4.7% of the short portfolio. Financials also make up a large chunk of the portfolio with a net long position of 16.1% (19.1% long and -3.0% short). In looking at individual stocks, we see some household names. AT&T (NYSE: T ) , Molson Coors Brewing (NYSE: TAP ) , Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE ) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) all make the top 10 long holdings. And on the other side, some of the largest short positions include Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ ) , The Priceline Group (NASDAQ: PCLN ) , Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG ) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) . FLAG doesn’t have a long enough trading history to draw firm conclusions about performance. But given its focus on quality and value, I would expect it to significantly outpace the long-only S&P 500 over time. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice or as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Sizemore Capital personnel and clients will often have an interest in the securities mentioned. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all Sizemore Capital investment strategies have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Link to the original post here .

The Smart Beta Rally That Many Investors Missed In 2015

By Luciano Siracusano, III One of the big trends in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has been this year’s flow of new money into developed world equity ETFs, both unhedged and currency hedged. WisdomTree estimates that nearly $100 billion of this year’s $171 billion in ETF industry inflows cascaded into these funds through the end of October. But the vast majority of assets in international equity ETFs-and the vast majority of net inflows this year-has been concentrated primarily in developed world large-cap strategies. While equity returns for the MSCI Europe and MSCI Japan indexes have, thus far in 2015, exceeded those generated by the S&P 500 Index, the bigger bull market has actually occurred in the smaller-company segment of the developed world. If we look at year-to-date returns through October 30, we can see by how much small-cap indexes have outperformed compared to broad market indexes comprising primarily large-cap companies in Europe, Japan and the developed world. (click to enlarge) For definitions of indexes in the chart, visit our glossary . What’s interesting is that the excess return produced by the small caps compared to their large-cap brethren is not just a 2015 phenomenon. Excess returns have held up over the last year, three years, five years and the better part of the last decade going back to the inception of the WisdomTree Indexes back in May of 2006. When One Compares Returns across Asset Classes, Additional Light Bulbs Light Up The double-digit gains European and Japanese small caps have generated thus far in 2015 have not only surpassed the broad European and Japanese benchmarks (MSCI Europe and MSCI Japan), they have outperformed the major asset classes investors typically tap to construct a globally diversified portfolio: large caps and small caps in the U.S. 1 ; MSCI EAFE Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index; REITs 2 , U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds 3 ; commodities 4 and gold 5 . Moreover, year-to-date in 2015, small caps measured by the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Index and the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Index outperformed each of the major indexes designed to measure how each smart beta factor is performing: MSCI Momentum, MSCI Quality, MSCI Value, MSCI Low Volatility or MSCI Size. What accounts for the divergence in returns? Part of it can be explained by sector concentrations, country and currency exposure. Another reason: Small-cap stocks are less tied to the global economy and often more sensitive to inflections in local economies. This can be partly explained by the historic tendency of small-company stocks to outperform large caps. This is one of the reasons that back in 2006 WisdomTree became the first ETF manager to launch international small-cap ETFs. At that time, WisdomTree knew that international small caps not only added potential for higher returns compared to large caps but they could also provide diversification benefits to a globally diversified portfolio. Since its inception in 2006, for example, the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Index had a correlation of .49 to the S&P 500. Adding components with lower correlations to one’s U.S. equity exposure has the potential to lower the overall volatility of a globally diversified portfolio. Conclusion Because most passive indexes and active international managers tend to concentrate primarily on large-cap stocks, international investors may miss the potential of small-cap companies unless they make a conscious effort to include them in their portfolios. We believe international small-cap exposure can help investors complete their international allocations. Returns this year in Europe, Japan and the developed world add additional real-time evidence to support our thesis. Unless otherwise stated, data sources are Bloomberg and WisdomTree. Sources S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Index. MSCI US REIT Gross Total Return and S&P Global ex-U.S. REIT USD Index. Barclays US Agg Corporate Yield-To-Worst and Barclays U.S. High Yield 2% Issr Cap Yield To Worst. Commodity Research Bureau BLS/US Spot all Commodities Index. Gold Spot Price Index. Important Risks Related to this Article Performance, especially for very short periods, should not be the sole factor in making your investment decision. Foreign investing involves special risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. Investments focusing on certain sectors and/or smaller companies increase their vulnerability to any single economic or regulatory development. Investments in commodities may be affected by overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors, such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses. Luciano Siracusano, III, Executive Vice President-Head of Sales and Chief Investment Strategist Luciano Siracusano, III has served as our Executive Vice President-Head of Sales and Chief Investment Strategist since March 2011. Prior to serving in those positions, Mr. Siracusano served as our Director of Research from 2001 until October 2008, and as a research analyst and editor of our various media publications from 1999 until 2001. Mr. Siracusano, together with Mr. Steinberg, was responsible for the creation and development of our fundamentally weighted index methodology.

JD.com Kicks Off Week Of China Tech Stock Earnings

JD.com (JD) is the first of a wave of Chinese Internet companies to issue quarterly earnings this week, and its shares rallied Monday. Coming up, Ctrip (CTRP), Vipshop (VIPS), Cheetah Mobile (CMCM), Momo (MOMO), Weibo (WB) and Leju (LEJU) also report their results. Follow Alissa Williams on Twitter @IBD_AWilliams and Facebook.