Author Archives: Scalper1
The Cheapest Domestic Dividend ETFs
Summary I found five domestic dividend ETFs with expense ratios below .15%. The yields on three are fairly compelling. The sector allocations show strong allocations for several to consumer staples. Even though VIG has a low dividend yield, the fund offers great sector exposures. The high expense ratio goes to HDV, but it is only .14% and the sector allocations are great for investors that believe big oil will recover. There are a few big dividend ETFs for exposure to companies offering respectable dividend yields. In this article I want to compare a few of them. Let’s meet the 5 of the big dividend ETFs: Ticker Name Index SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100™ Index VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF FTSE High Dividend Yield Index VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers Select Index DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF Morningstar® U.S. Dividend Growth Index HDV iShares Core High Dividend ETF Morningstar® Dividend Yield Focus Index Dividend Yields Since these are dividend ETFs, the first thing investors are going to be looking at is the dividend yield. The dividend ETF space is a great option for investors looking for higher yields on their portfolio but without a large enough portfolios to justify picking 30 to 50 individual dividend champions. The yields for these five range from 2.25% to 3.75% First Impressions Investors right away may notice that the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF and the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF don’t have a very high yield compared with the other dividend ETFs. It may be rational for investors looking at these funds to ask whether they should really be considered high dividend yield ETFs, but both of the portfolios are focused on companies that they expect to grow dividends significantly. Expense Ratios These funds were all selected for having extremely low expense ratios. The ratios range from .07% to .14%. While the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF technically only has 70% of the expense ratio of Vanguard’s options, the difference of .03% is not material. Even doubling from SCHD to HDV is still only increasing the ratio .14%. For the frugal investor, any of these options would be a reasonable choice so long as they are happy with the rest of the characteristics of the portfolio. Free Trading If investors are being careful with their cash and keeping an eye on factors like the expense ratio, then they may find free trading to also be very appealing. For the investor that is regularly investing more than $10,000 the commissions would cease to be a material factor, but for the investor that wants to be able to make several small purchases to keep building up their position each month for years the impact of commissions will add up. (click to enlarge) My Thoughts I would find any of these ETFs attractive. Personally I’m holding the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and the decision was certainly influenced by free trading since I like to be able to add to my positions whenever there is a dip in prices. I expect to average purchasing ETFs one to three times per month. That is not three times for the same ETF, but I may be adding to positions in several sectors which would cause the commissions to start adding up. The other factor influencing me was the fact that SCHD is holding about 22% of the portfolio in the consumer staples sector. I don’t want to focus my investment efforts on market timing, so when prices feel high I look for more defensive allocations such as the consumer staples sector. This is the top allocation for VYM as well, though it is only around 14% to 15% of the portfolio. DGRO is also overweight on consumer staples at 17.65%, but industrials are the top allocation with 19.15% of the portfolio. VIG deserves a great deal of respect for the investor wanting more consumer staples in their portfolio. The fund has 26.43% of the portfolio in the sector. Even though the yield is lower on VIG, this is a solid portfolio. The biggest thing for investors here to consider is that the fund has only 2.31% to utilities, 1.26% to energy, and .10% to telecommunications. If an investor in VIG wants some Verizon (NYSE: VZ ) or AT&T (NYSE: T ), they’ll need to buy those shares individually. My favorite allocations arguably come from HDV though. The fund has a 20% allocation to both consumer staples and energy. For investors that don’t want to hold the oil giants, this would be a terrible choice. For investors that are happy to hold some of the oil champions, this is a great portfolio. The ETF offers a very strong yield and the exposure to oil helps an investor if oil prices go back up. If oil stays cheap, it will be a favorable development for the rest of the economy since it will drive down transportation costs and lead to many consumers having more cash in their pockets. For investors that want the oil exposure but don’t want to buy to buy into HDV because they have free trading on the others or because they are concerned about the slight difference in the expense ratio, they could buy their ETF of choice and simply buy some shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) to get their oil exposure. What do You Think? Which dividend ETF makes the most sense for you? Do you want to overweight consumer staples for more safety in a downturn or would you rather have more upside in a prolonged bull market? Do you want to own the oil companies, or do you foresee gas as being in a long term downtrend that makes the business model much weaker?
Valuation Dashboard: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Summary 4 key fundamental factors are reported across industries in the Consumer Discretionary sector. They give valuation status of an industry relative to its historical average. They give a reference for picking stocks in each industry. This is part of a monthly series of articles giving a valuation dashboard in sectors and industries. The idea is to follow up a certain number of fundamental factors for every sector, to compare them to historical averages. This article covers Consumer Discretionary. The choice of the fundamental ratios used in this study has been justified here and here . You can find in this article numbers that may be useful in a top-down approach. There is no analysis of individual stocks. You can refine your research reading articles by industry experts here . A link to a list of stocks to consider is provided in the conclusion. Methodology Four industry factors calculated by portfolio123 are extracted from the database: Price/Earnings (P/E), Price to sales (P/S), Price to free cash flow (P/FCF), Return on Equity (ROE). They are compared with their own historical averages “Avg”. The difference is measured in percentage for valuation ratios and in absolute for ROE, and named “D-xxx” if xxx is the factor’s name (for example D-P/E for price/earnings). The industry factors are proprietary data from the platform. The calculation aims at eliminating extreme values and size biases, which is necessary when going out of a large cap universe. These factors are not representative of capital-weighted indices. They are useful as reference values for picking stocks in an industry, not for ETF investors. Industry valuation table on 11/26/2015 The next table reports the 4 industry factors. For each factor, the next “Avg” column gives its average between January 1999 and October 2015, taken as an arbitrary reference of fair valuation. The next “D-xxx” column is the difference as explained above. So there are 3 columns for each ratio. P/E Avg D- P/E P/S Avg D- P/S P/FCF Avg D- P/FCF ROE Avg D-ROE Auto Components 15.13 15.33 1.30% 0.83 0.62 -33.87% 33.88 21.23 -59.59% 10.79 3.9 6.89 Automobiles 17.6 17.67 0.40% 1.19 1.06 -12.26% 16.17 21.97 26.40% 10.79 0.21 10.58 Household Durables 17.52 15.46 -13.32% 0.85 0.59 -44.07% 30.1 16.33 -84.32% 9.74 5.3 4.44 Leisure Equip.&Products 22.9 17.82 -28.51% 1.19 0.84 -41.67% 30.76 22.05 -39.50% 9.14 2.63 6.51 Textile,Apparel,Luxury 17.93 16.34 -9.73% 1.02 0.71 -43.66% 27.03 17.23 -56.88% 11.81 7 4.81 Hotels, Restaurants, Leisure 27.67 21.67 -27.69% 1.38 1.04 -32.69% 26.98 24.18 -11.58% 9.24 4.51 4.73 Div. Consumer Services* 27.49 21.49 -27.92% 1.37 1.4 2.14% 17.28 18.64 7.30% 0.36 11.35 -10.99 Media 21.27 23.31 8.75% 1.61 1.55 -3.87% 24.79 19.9 -24.57% 3.43 -3.45 6.88 Distributors 20.07 14.32 -40.15% 1.05 0.48 -118.75% 37.45 16.28 -130.04% 10.21 3.18 7.03 Internet&Catalog Retail 39.1 37.37 -4.63% 1.38 1.8 23.33% 38.36 32.11 -19.46% 5.83 -14.7 20.53 Multiline Retail 20.32 19.41 -4.69% 0.5 0.48 -4.17% 25.87 26.81 3.51% 7.04 10.44 -3.4 Specialty Retail 18.69 17.95 -4.12% 0.58 0.56 -3.57% 24.34 21.87 -11.29% 11.69 9.85 1.84 *Averages since 2005 Valuation The following charts give an idea of the current status of industries relative to their historical average. In all cases, the higher the better. Price/Earnings: Price/Sales: Price/Free Cash Flow: Quality (ROE) Relative Momentum The next chart compares the price action of the SPDR Select Sector ETF ( XLY ) with SPY (chart from freestockcharts.com). (click to enlarge) Conclusion The Consumer Discretionary sector has outperformed the broad market by more than 4% in the last 3 months. It hit a new all-time high this week. The 5 most prominent S&P 500 consumer discretionary stocks in the recent rally are Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Cablevision Systems (NYSE: CVC ), General Motors (NYSE: GM ), Nike (NYSE: NKE ), Viacom (NASDAQ: VIAB ). AMZN and NKE have hit an all-time high this week. Car and motorcycle manufacturers (Automobiles) look the most attractive industry in the sector: it is fairly priced in P/E, under-priced in P/FCF, and ROE is above the historical average. The industries with an improvement in valuation factors since last month are Auto Components, Household Durables, Leisure equipment and products, Hotels and Restaurants, Specialty Retail. However, there may be quality stocks at a reasonable price in any industry. To check them out, you can compare individual fundamental factors to the industry factors provided in the table. As an example, a list of stocks in Consumer Discretionary beating their industry factors is provided on this page . If you want to stay informed of my updates on this topic and other articles, click the “Follow” tab at the top of this article.