Wall Street has high hopes this holiday season for computer game software makers. The 18-stock computer games industry group ranked No. 6 out of 197 groups as of Monday’s IBD and is up nearly 32% year to date. Several leading firms are trading near their 52-week price highs. One is Activision Blizzard (ATVI), which said Nov. 3 that it’s purchasing King Digital (KING) — maker of the “Candy Crush” games, which are among the top hits in both Apple
Summary Investing for retirement can be as simple or as complex as you want to make it. One well diversified global ETF with a low expense ratio is a good start. Given the relative under-performance of foreign equities over the last five years, now might be a good time to add exposure to foreign equities to your retirement portfolio. This article reviews VEU, an ETF that can be added effectively to the core portion of most investors’ portfolios to increase exposure to foreign equities. Simply Investing – Philosophy Whether you are just starting to invest for yourself or your kids or are taking back control of your investments from an investment advisor, keep investing simple, consistent, diversified and low cost and you will significantly increase your chance of success. One well diversified global ETF with a low expense ratio is all that is required for many people starting to invest in equities, and an ETF that meets these criteria is the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSEARCA: VT ). As an investor’s experience, time dedicated to investing activities and desired risk, increases, investors can add ETFs to the core of their portfolio to gain exposure to new areas or increase exposure to areas that the investor believes will outperform. The next step for many investors is to allocate a percentage of their portfolio to “edge” positions, which offer additional risk and opportunity. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (NYSEARCA: VEU ) This article reviews VEU, an ETF that can be added effectively to the core portion of many investors’ portfolios to increase exposure to foreign equities. VEU – Regional allocation and investment synopsis Source: Vanguard (allocation as of 10/31/2015) VEU seeks to track the performance of the FTSE All-World ex US Index. It has holdings in approximately 2,500 stocks with broad exposure across developed and emerging non-US equity markets around the world. VEU’s broad global diversification helps to minimize volatility that any one region may experience. As can be seen above, VEU’s heaviest weighting is in European stocks. Investors looking to increase their exposure to foreign stocks should consider whether they want a heavy concentration of European stocks in their foreign stock ETF, when adding this ETF to their portfolio. VEU performance compared to the S&P 500 (click to enlarge) Source: Yahoo Finance (11/29/2015) As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has significantly outperformed VEU over the last five years. There are a number of reasons for this including the relative strength of the US economy and the US dollar compared to foreign economies and currencies. While the out-performance of the US market may continue for some time, after such an extreme period of under-performance by foreign stocks, now might be a good time to start building or add to a core position in foreign stocks in anticipation that this under-performance will, at some point, at least partially reverse itself. VEU -Equity characteristics Source: Vanguard (as of 10/31/2015) As the table above indicates, VEU is very well diversified, holding 2,508 stocks. The median market cap is quite large at $28.5 billion. VEU’s current price/earnings ratio at 17.4 is high compared to historical levels for global markets. The high current price/earnings ratio is not unique to VEU. The price/earnings ratios for US markets and many global markets are currently higher than historical norms. These high price/earnings ratios are likely due to the low returns that alternative investments, such as fixed income, currently offer. Investing for retirement should be done on a consistent basis. A simple investment plan, makes consistent investment that much more likely to happen. The relatively high current price/earnings ratio of stocks suggests that if you have a large amount of capital to invest today, it is advisable to dollar cost average this investment into the market over a period of time. VEU – Top 10 holdings Source: Vanguard (as of 10/31/2015) VEU’s top ten holdings are dominated by European companies, with eight out of the ten holdings European. As previously indicated, European stocks make up 47% of VEU’s holdings, so they are somewhat over-represented in this list of VEU’s top ten holdings, but these top ten holdings make up only 8.9% of total net assets. VEU – Expense ratio and dividend yield VEU’s expense ratio is 0.14%, this is well below the average expense ratio of similar funds at 1.16%. Given the relatively high price of the market today, it is likely that future returns may be lower than those recently experienced. In this environment, it is important that the core of your portfolio is allocated to funds with low expense ratios like VEU. The forward looking dividend yield is 2.95% based on the last four quarters distributions. Conclusion Your chance of long term investment success increases significantly by keeping your investing simple, consistent and well diversified. Most investors can benefit by building a core position in a well diversified global ETF with a low expense ratio like the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. After establishing an initial core position in a global ETF, then additional low cost, well diversified ETFs can be added to the core portion of your portfolio to gain exposure to areas under-represented or which the investor believes will out-perform. With the relative under-performance of foreign stocks compared to the US market over the last five years, now might be a good time to increase your exposure to foreign stocks by to adding a low cost, well-diversified foreign stock fund like VEU to the core portion of your portfolio.
A busy week ahead for SLV. The upcoming ECB rate decision could result in a weaker Euro. And as the Euro/USD falls, SLV is likely to follow. The next NFP report could also bring down the price of SLV. This week is expected to be turbulent not only for silver and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV ) but also for other commodities and major currencies, considering the upcoming non-farm payroll report, Yellen’s testimony and the ECB rate decision. The first two events could influence people’s perspectives regarding the upcoming FOMC meeting, while the last event could have a strong impact on the Euro. And given the expected changes of both central banks’ monetary policies, the price of SLV is likely to resume its descent. The highly expected European Central Bank policy meeting will be on Thursday. Currently, some analysts think the ECB may announce a two tier deposit rate for commercial banks parking their cash at the ECB – a similar system to the one they have in Switzerland. Others think ECB President Draghi will just consider lowering again the deposit rate and increasing the already running quantitative easing program. In either way, this could mean a weaker Euro, which may put additional downward pressure on SLV. The following day, the non-farm payroll report will be published. Last time, the NFP’s headline figure was high at 271,000 jobs – well above market estimates. And wage growth rate rose to 2.5%, which was the highest rate since 2009. With such progress, the FOMC is likely to move forward with raising its cash rate, assuming the next NFP report doesn’t disappoint. After all, the FOMC promised in the last meeting that if economic data show promising results, the committee will move forward with a rate hike in December. The market is still not fully convinced the FOMC will hit liftoff in a few weeks from now – the implied probabilities for a December hike are at 78%. Perhaps if the next NFP report shows a growth rate in jobs of over 200,000 – the market currently estimates a growth of 201,000 – and a wage growth of at least 2.4%, the market will be more inclined to believe higher interest rates are up ahead. And then the market could start focusing on the pace of subsequent rate hikes. So far this month, long-term treasury yields also rose: 10-year yields increased by 0.06 percentage points while 1-year yields added 0.16 pp. For SLV, a higher cash rate also means higher long-term interest rates, which are likely to bring down silver prices. But it’s worth noticing that it’s still not a done deal about the December rate hike. If the NFP report shows a very modest gain in jobs and lower growth rate in wages, this could reduce the odds of a December hike by the Fed. And that also means a short term bounce for SLV. Chair Yellen will testify this week in front the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Senate and before Economic Club of Washington regarding the economic outlook of the U.S. This will be her last public address before the December meeting. Perhaps she will refer to progress of labor market and inflation. After all, according to the personal and income outlay update , consumption grows at a slower pace than income. And the core PCE inflation is only at 1.3% (back in October) – well below the Fed’s 2% target . It seems that the rise in wages didn’t result in more spending, which, in turn, didn’t raise core inflation. Without higher inflation, the Fed will still reconsider up to the last minute whether raising rates in December is a prudent move. The silver market has seen better days. If the NFP report shows another modest gain in jobs and the ECB moves forward in reducing its rates or augmenting its QE program, the U.S. dollar is likely to appreciate. And given the current expectations of what’s up ahead, the price of SLV is more likely to keep declining in the short term. For more please see: Choosing Between Gold and Silver