Author Archives: Scalper1

An Aggressive Portfolio For Investors Using Modern Portfolio Theory

Summary The aggressive allocation strategy incorporates a mere 15% of the portfolio to bonds. The portfolio also contains 8% to utilities and 25% to equity REITs which are sensitive to movements in interest rates. This kind of portfolio is designed for an investor that can bear substantial risk and is willing to have the portfolio rebalanced at regular intervals. I’ve selected a combination of the Schwab and Vanguard funds that I find attractive. Several are in my portfolio. Facing expectations for an increase in domestic short-term rates, portfolio strategy has been on my mind. Frequent readers will know that I cover mREITs a great deal and invest a material portion of my portfolio in the mREITs that I consider most attractive. In this piece, I want to talk about a strategy that I think would be very reasonable for the rest of the portfolio. Before we get into the allocations, I want to stress that this is designed as an aggressive portfolio and for many investors, this portfolio would simply be too risky. I have a long-time horizon, and aggressive allocations make sense for me. Each investor should carefully consider their circumstances. The Strategy I feel that a portfolio like this would be most useful under MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory). The portfolio would be designed with the expectation of frequently rebalancing positions. That can be a problem for investors that are holding their positions across several accounts or don’t have free trading on the securities. Several of these ETFs will qualify for free trading through either Schwab or Vanguard but not both. I’d love to see each of those brokerages bring out additional funds to make it possible for an investor to select funds from only one brokerage for this strategy. It might be possible through Vanguard, but I’m more familiar with Schwab’s international options. Tax Exempt For the purpose of this article, I’m assuming the accounts are retirement accounts that are tax exempt. Some investors may figure that this would be a problem because the employer sponsored 401k is unlikely to have all of these options, but I’ve personally had success with rolling former employer 401k accounts into IRA accounts. The heavy weight for domestic equity REITs would be fairly strange for an investor facing higher income taxes on the position. Asset Allocation That domestic total allocation of 65% could be treated as a home country bias and there may be some arguments for moving that combined position down to 60% of the total portfolio so that international positions and bonds can be increased. For now, I’m going to go with 65% in the combination of domestic equity and domestic equity REITs. Many investors may think 40% into traditional equity with 25% into equity REITs is incredibly heavy on equity REITs, but I see the lack of corporate taxation as a huge and durable advantage for providing superior growth. Domestic Equity The first 40% gets broken up between three funds: I’ve used the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHB ) over the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) on the basis of a .01% lower expense ratio. This is fairly small, but I’m long both ETFs in different accounts. I’m also using the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ) and love the defensive allocations. In this case, I opted to use the broad market ETF because I’m combining it with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEARCA: VDC ) and the Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA: VPU ) to make the combined domestic equity position significantly more defensive. Equity REITs This is fairly simple. Investors could use the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) or the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHH ). For investors seeking higher dividend payouts, the easy answer is VNQ. Since I have a very long time until the retirement and the portfolios are very similar, I’ve been adding more to my SCHH holdings since it has free trading a lower expense ratio. International As I noted at the start of the article, I’m more familiar with Schwab’s international options than with Vanguard’s. The Schwab International Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHF ) gets only 5% of the portfolio and matches the Schwab Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHE ). The heaviest weight goes to the Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHC ) because I want the international equity allocations to favor smaller companies on the assumption that they will earn more of their revenues from the international market. I don’t have much use for overweighting multinational companies that happen to have their headquarters in a different country. Therefore, I prefer the smaller companies in this space. Bonds I went with a mix of the Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF to get very high credit quality (including treasuries) and fairly moderate duration and the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF (NASDAQ: VCLT ) for a higher yield. The long duration on high credit quality corporate issues allows the fund to still exhibit a negative correlation with the S&P 500 while offering significantly stronger yields than treasury securities of the same long maturity. One Problem Using a portfolio like this would be ideal for an aggressive investor that is ready to put a rebalancing plan in place. Some of the brokerages will offer options to create an automatic portfolio and will allow users to influence the allocations. When I tested out Schwab’s feature for it, I was disappointed to find that some of my favorite Schwab funds were not included in the options. Of course, Schwab also does not have an equivalent option to VDC or VPU in its group of funds with extremely low expense ratios. If it rolls out an option that would allow automatic rebalancing across the account with my favorite ETFs included, I would be very interested in trying it. I wouldn’t want to incorporate my mREIT positions into that part of the portfolio, but I would feel comfortable designing a weighting system for the rest of my portfolio that would be automatically rebalanced. One of the funds I was disappointed to see excluded from the system was SCHH. Since this kind of rebalancing system would be problematic outside of tax-exempt accounts, I would really want to be able to run a heavy equity REIT allocation. Conclusion I’d love to see brokers continue to develop their portfolio management tools so that it is simple for investors to set up a portfolio like this. They would need to be careful about handling things such as rebalancing and allow investors to set a goal like to rebalance individual positions when the bid-ask spread is only one cent.

RSX: OPEC, Sanctions On Turkey And The Stubborn Ruble

Summary OPEC fails to provide support to oil prices, posing a significant risk for RSX. The story with Turkey is evolving as I predicted, and does not add much to the bear thesis. The ruble remains relatively overvalued. Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX ) had an interesting November. The ETF moved up and down, fueled by implications of Paris attacks, the shooting of the Russian jet by Turkey and the fluctuations of oil prices. In this article, I’ll focus on two major developments – the Russian sanctions on Turkey and OPEC’s decision to leave things as they are. Turkey In my article on RSX that was published right after the jet incident I stated that Russia’s response won’t be harmful for RSX components. This what exactly happened. In essence, Russia banned tourism and food from Turkey. The food ban comes into power on January 1, 2016, but multiple reports from Russian media show that it is already next to impossible to bring food from Turkey in reasonable time due to customs’ intense checks. Short-term, this will increase inflation, as Russia imports most fruits and vegetables that it consumes in winter because of obvious geographical reasons. As for RSX holdings , this might hurt the retailer Magnit, but I don’t think that it will have a big impact on Magnit’s bottom line. Russian president promised more sanctions on Turkey, but so far there was more harsh talk than real actions. Given the nature of the incident, tourism and food bans are a very light response. I anticipate more words (like the recent mutual accusations of involvement in the ISIS oil trade) from both sides as politicians want to score some points, but I expect little action. Among RSX holdings, the biggest risk is on Sberbank (OTCPK: OTCPK:SBRCY ), which is the fund’s biggest holding. Sberbank owns DenizBank, which is a notable player in the Turkish market. In the latest interview to the Russian media, Sberbank’s head German Gref stated that he saw no significant risks for Sberbank in Turkey, and I agree with his assessment. OPEC OPEC’s decision to live things as they were was predictable, but, nevertheless, was bad for Russia. I think that OPEC’s inability to function as an organization will put more pressure on the oil market. I recently argued that a perfect storm could push oil to $25 per barrel. Such a drop will push RSX way past the lows of December 2014. However, even current prices present an enormous threat to the Russian economy as the country eats through its emergency funds. The ruble The ruble (which is an important factor for the dollar-denominated RSX) stays relatively strong given the current oil price. The ruble-denominated oil price stubbornly stays around 2900 per barrel, while the Russian budget for 2016 needs at least 3150 per barrel. Sanctions on Turkey limit the Central Bank’s ability to decrease the rate, which is currently at 11% . However, if oil stays weak in the beginning of 2016, I expect that the Central Bank will have to cut the rate to provide some help to the Russian budget. Bottom line I remain bearish. RSX was clearly not the easiest short trade in the last few months. There was some optimism about Russia and buying activity was real. However, I question the Russian economy’s ability to successfully operate at current oil price levels. Also, as I think that the next leg down in oil is around the corner, I expect further weakness in RSX.