Author Archives: Scalper1

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 12/11/15

Major averages rose yesterday on lower volume. The number of distribution days combined with lackluster performance on the part of leading stocks implies further downside. But given the slower time of year combined with seasonal strength as well as shallow floors which have been the character of the markets since 2013, the market could remain stuck in this trading range. Still, a repeat of last December could occur where the majors drop 5% from peak to trough in a hurry, taking down leading stocks. That said, the majors are off about 3-4% from their highs so their decline may be limited. Nevertheless, despite the slower time of year, continue to keep a close eye on any long positions. The Fed’s action this December 16 may contribute to elevated levels of volatility since their decision is historically significant and would be the first rate hike in nine years. CME FedWatch futures show 83% as the probability of a rate hike. Futures are down about 1% this morning as crude oil makes lower lows and European markets are weak overnight. The S&P 500 has now closed below its 50-day moving average twice this week, while the NASDAQ Composite found support near its own 50-day line on Wednesday. The indexes remain in a tenuous position, which is all the more reason to exercise caution. As Gil Morales pointed out in yesterday’s live market webinar, the broader indexes, such as the New York Composite and the Russell 2000, are showing negative divergences as they did back in July before the market came apart in August. While a so-called Santa Claus rally might emerge before year-end, it may be muted and the market’s breadth issues may have a more pronounced effect come the New Year.

Tsinghua Has $47B To Crush Apple Supplier Qualcomm

China’s Tsinghua Unigroup has Apple (AAPL) supplier Qualcomm (QCOM) in its sights, planning to invest $47 billion over the next five years to leapfrog Qualcomm and become the world’s No. 3 chipmaker. And Tsinghua’s ambitions could find it swallowing up smaller chipmakers such as Maxim Integrated (MXIM), Micron Technology (MU) and Xilinx (XLNX). The state-owned investment group must outplay U.S. companies scrambling amid frenzied chip sector M&A

How To Think About M&A When It Comes To Your Portfolio

What do mergers and acquisitions have to do with your portfolio? A lot, says BlackRock’s Mark McKenna – especially in today’s market. It’s been a remarkable year for financial markets, highlighted by extreme volatility, severe weakness in commodities and a raging debate about interest rates, among other things. But there’s another ongoing market trend of great importance to investors, one that could offer substantial opportunity: M&A. Merger and acquisition activity has been on a torrid pace in 2015, on track to surpass 2007’s record levels. Through November, more than $4.5 trillion worth of mergers have been announced year-to-date, and the activity in the third quarter was the strongest on record for that period, according to Citi. The flurry of deals is a reflection primarily of three factors: low interest rates, robust corporate balance sheets and a global economy that remains sluggish. Low rates make funding acquisitions more affordable, and companies that have a difficult time growing their earnings when the economy is soft often look for attractive merger candidates to help spur their growth. Mergers, Acquisitions and Your Portfolio So how can investors take advantage of this trend? Well, for starters let’s quickly cover what not to do. Simply guessing at which companies might be takeover targets and buying as much stock as you can is not a good idea. Investors should never buy a stock based simply on a hunch that the company may someday be a buyout target. Instead, investors might consider employing what we call an “event-driven” strategy. Event-driven investing focuses on capturing the value gap created when companies undergo transformative events, or “catalysts.” The idea behind the strategy is to invest in a company undergoing a material change that is expected to impact shareholder value. We define catalysts as either “hard” or “soft.” A hard catalyst, such as an announced merger, tends to have a defined outcome, which creates a more predictable return. A soft catalyst, perhaps a company undergoing a senior management change, can have a range of outcomes. One advantage of these investments is that, because they are focused on company-specific developments and not broader market events, they are less correlated with day-to-day market movements. By extension, such event-driven strategies have the potential to generate positive returns regardless of overall market moves. (click to enlarge) From my perspective, the record M&A activity that we’ve seen this year has created the most attractive opportunity we’ve seen in the last 10 years, with merger spread investments near all-time high rates of returns. When compared to other yield asset classes, including high yield bonds, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and even many illiquid yield investments, merger spreads may offer higher returns with much less duration risk. As a result, merger investments can potentially provide investors equity-like returns with volatility usually associated with stocks, according to data from Bloomberg and Hedge Fund Research Inc. With the stock market both volatile and near all-time highs, and fixed income yields hovering near historic lows, investors should consider different ways to diversify their portfolios. Event-driven strategies are one way to do that, offering not only the potential for positive returns in both up and down markets, but also potentially reducing portfolio risk. Mark McKenna is Global Head of Event-Driven equity and a Managing Director at BlackRock. This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.