Author Archives: Scalper1

Sellers battered retailers on Wednesday on a range of company and earnings news, but discount chains have held up better. In late trading, retail and apparel industry groups had 16 of the day’s 20 worst losses among the 197 groups tracked by IBD. That’s a tough day. The stock market has been hard in general on the retail sector, with retail groups holding four of the 10 worst industry rankings. One exception has been discount and variety stores, essentially the dollar-store chains. Those were in the top five rankings on Wednesday and have held top-20 rankings for nearly eight straight weeks. Dollar stores for the past several years have offered a combination of defensive and offensive plays. Like Wal-Mart ( WMT ) and Target ( TGT ), the stores tend to attract more customers when economic times turn tough, as consumers hold down spending. At the same time, they have provided a growth story as the once highly fragmented industry consolidates into a smaller numbers of larger players. But the group wasn’t immune to Wednesday’s selling pressure. Get a closer look at Macy’s fine points using IBD’s Stock Checkup feature. Five Below ( FIVE ), Big Lots ( BIG ), Dollar Tree ( DLTR ), Ollie’s Bargain Outlets ( OLLI ) and Dollar General ( DG )  slid. But none of that really caused any chart damage within the group, with one exception. Five Below pared its losses after diving almost 8% in opening trade. It had already tripped a sell signal last week, after falling more than 8% below a 42.36 buy point. Wednesday’s action showed the stock losing its grip on its 50-day moving average. It also sent shares more than 8% below a prior buy point of 41.57, triggering a sell rule for investors who bought at that level. Ollie’s has been the group’s barn-burner, ripping ahead 27% from a March 18 breakout to a peak on April 28. Anywhere above a 20% increase from the buy point would have been a good place for investors to book profits. Those who held on rode a pullback over the past three weeks. Shares are now testing support at the 10-week moving average and about 10% above the stock’s buy point. If the stock rises off its 10-week line in strong trade, it would present an add-on buying opportunity. If it cuts that line in heavy trade, it could mark a sell signal, depending on how severely the stock breaks support. Ollie’s sells name-brand goods — from clothing to sporting goods to flooring and food — at steep discounts. The bargain chain operates some 200 stores across the East. Dollar General took a light bounce off support at its 10-week moving average. It is working on the sixth week of a flat base with an 87.52 buy point. It is in a base-on-base pattern, with its low sitting around the high of a prior base. Dollar General broke out of that pattern after reporting its Q4 results on March 10. The company plans to report Q1 results on May 19. All the companies in the group operate on a January year-end calendar. Dollar Tree had outflanked Dollar General last year, spending $8.5 billion to win over Family Dollar and bump Dollar General out of a bid for market dominance. The deal left the dollar-store market with two peers of essentially equal size: Dollar Tree-Family Dollar with nearly 14,000 stores and Dollar General with just under 13,000. Dollar General’s revenue for fiscal 2015 was $20.4 billion. Dollar Tree-Family Dollar booked revenue of $15.5 billion. In terms of earnings, analysts’ consensus is for a 15% rise in Dollar General’s EPS this year in what would make a tenth straight advance. Dollar Tree’s outlook: a 55% jump in EPS and a 35% surge in revenue as the company fully digests Family Dollar. Next year estimates slow to a 23% earnings gain and a 6% sales rise. Despite the sharp upturn in financials, the jury is still out among investors with regard to the Dollar Tree-Family Dollar combo. Shares have traded sideways since January after recovering from an October low, but they remain about 6% below their March 2015 high. Big Lots is the group’s struggling turnaround story. Quarterly earnings and revenue have wobbled up and down. The stock continues to trade at about 14% below a November 2014 high. The stock is basing, but fundamentals continue to look weak. Earnings are forecast to grow 11% this year on a 1% revenue gain, rising to a 14% gain next year with revenue growth holding steady.