Author Archives: Scalper1

How Sustainable Is The Nikkei Rebound? Japan ETFs In Focus

Japan’s key index, the Nikkei, ended in the positive territory for the first time this year on Wednesday. The Nikkei gained 2.9%, or 496.67 points, on Wednesday, after losing nearly 1,800 points from the start of this year through Tuesday. Despite hitting the highest year-end close last year in 18 years, the benchmark was struggling to finish in the green from the start of this year following China-led global growth worries and the oil price slump. Reasons Behind the Rebound Better-than-expected trade data out of China, gains in the U.S. markets and decline in the yen’s value against major currencies emerged as the main reasons behind the rebound. The General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports declined 1.4% in December, narrower than a 6.8% drop in November and the markets’ estimate of an 8% decline. Though imports declined for the 14th consecutive month in December, the 7.6% drop in imports compared favorably with November’s plunge of 8.7% and the markets’ forecast of an 11.5% decline. Meanwhile, modest gains in the U.S. markets on Tuesday also boosted the Nikkei. A late rebound in Healthcare and Technology stocks helped the benchmarks to offset a further decline in oil prices. Also, the weaker yen helped the major exporters, including large-cap auto companies and tech companies, to attract investors, as it raised the possibility of an increase in export volumes. Will It Sustain? The sustainability of this rebound in the near term will largely depend on some key factors, including the condition of the Chinese economy, the movement of crude and the health of the Japanese economy. Though better-than-expected Chinese trade data boosted the markets on Wednesday, the decline in both exports and imports indicate that both global and domestic demand continued to remain weak. Meanwhile, the World Bank recently reduced its outlook for Chinese GDP growth in 2016 by 30 percentage points to 6.7%, below last year’s estimated growth rate of 6.9%. The bank also predicted that the economy may grow at a slower pace of 6.5% over the next two years. Separately, given the weak outlook for the Chinese economy, which is one of the leading importers of oil, and an already oversupplied market, there is little hope of a recovery in oil prices. Crude is currently trading at a 12-year low, with every indication of a slide below $30 per barrel. In this scenario, the Japanese economic environment will play a key role in setting the course of the Nikkei in the coming months. Japan opted for several economic stimulus measures last year, which proved to be more effective than the steps taken by China and the eurozone. The economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter to register a GDP growth rate of 1%, as against the second quarter’s contraction of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the impact of recent modifications in the quantitative easing program by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also remain in focus. The bank opted for raising the Japanese government bonds’ (JGBs) average maturity from 7-10 years to 7-12 years, and announced that it will allocate 300 billion yen of assets annually in purchasing ETFs that seek to follow the JPX-Nikkei Index 400. Japan ETFs in Focus In this scenario, popular Japan ETFs and funds that closely track the performance of the Nikkei will remain on investors’ radar in the coming months. The Precidian MAXIS Nikkei 225 Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NKY ), which tracks the performance of the Nikkei 225 Index, returned nearly 9.4% last year. Meanwhile, the performance of other popular Japan ETFs will also remain in focus in the near term. In 2015, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ ), the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) and the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBJP ) returned 8.9%, 3.3% and 4.5%, respectively. Original Post

More Pain Ahead For Basic Materials ETFs In 2016?

It’s been years since basic materials ETFs last saw their days of glory. As for the last few years, the space has been an area of concern, thanks to a surging greenback, massive crash in oil prices and hard landing fears in China. Moreover, supply glut has been a long-lasting issue for this space. Things were fragile for long in China given the protracted slowdown in the domestic manufacturing sector, credit crunch concerns and a property market slowdown. As a result, the Chinese economy has been undergoing a tumultuous phase for the last few months. To shore up the ailing economy and the turbulent market, the Chinese government took several measures; but nothing could really heal the pain. Since the Chinese economy accounts for about half of the global consumption of industrial commodities and is the second biggest purchaser of oil, a further slowdown in the Chinese economy would mean weaker demand for commodities. In any case, most developed economies are presently in a state of slowdown and thus require lesser commodities for weak demand. Also, the strength in the greenback owing to Fed policy tightening marred the broader commodity prices as most of these materials are priced in the U.S. dollar. Also, a hike in interest rates tends to boost investors’ interest in income-generating assets and thus hurts the investment demand for non-yielding commodities. So, all in all, fears of softening demand amid abundant supplies have led to a broad-based meltdown in commodities prices. Commodities at Multi-Year Lows Copper prices have already plunged to a new six-year low on Chinese economic issues. Events in China are major contributors as the country is the world’s biggest consumer of this industrial metal, making up roughly 40% of global copper demand. Thus, a prolonged manufacturing slowdown in the world’s second largest economy cast a dark cloud over the red metal. Iron ore fell to a five-and-a-half year low in December 2015 and analysts predict that the rout can deepen further as ” Chinese steel mills rebuild the inventory.” Nickel prices plummeted to a 12-year low on low demand from “the stainless steel sector , the dominant source of demand for nickel.” Most agricultural commodities are also in the red. The oil price rout is getting more and more acute lately with Brent crude having slipped to a 12-year low and WTI crude falling to a seven-year low. Analysts expect the pressure to remain in place. ETFs to Lose More in 2016 iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSEARCA: IYM ) – Down 20% in the last one year (as of January 12, 2016) and about 9.6% year to date. The fund is the most exposed to chemicals though steel, gold and aluminum take about 10% of the fund. SPDR Materials Select Sector Fund (NYSEARCA: XLB ) – Down 16.4% in the last one year (as of January 12, 2016) and about 9.2% year to date. The fund puts 73.8% off its assets in the chemical sector followed by 9.5% of assets in the metals & mining sector, and 8.7% in containers and packaging sector. The fund is heavy on Du Pont (NYSE: DD ) (11.4%) and Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW ) (11.2%). SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSEARCA: XME ) – Down 53.9% in the last one year (as of January 12, 2016) and about 15% year to date. Steel occupies almost half of the portfolio followed by 10% in aluminum, diversified metals and gold each. iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (NYSEARCA: PICK ) – Down 50.4% in the last one year (as of January 12, 2016) and about 15.8% year to date. Materials hold about the entire fund though consumer services and consumer durables take a slight portion of the ETF. The fund’s main focus is on companies like BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP ), Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO ) and Glencore ( OTCPK:GLNCY ). Bottom Line With the operating backdrop in 2016 expected to be no different than 2015, the basic materials sector will replay the same pattern that we saw in the recent past. At Zacks, we have most of the materials ETFs as Sell-rated at the time of writing. Original Post

Why Invest In Dividend Aristocrat ETFs Now?

There is hardly a market scenario where dividend investing fails to soothe jittery investors’ nerves. Though many thought that the bull market for dividend investing will end with the start of the Fed policy tightening and the resultant rise in bond yields, in reality, the popularity of dividend investing has shot up in recent times. This was because of the sharp rise in global growth issues, which is why equity markets are running a high risk of volatility and bond yields remained in check despite the Fed liftoff. The demand for safe havens and value investing has lit up. Investors hungry for yields are running to high-yielding options in the quest for regular current income, which can make up for capital losses. Agreed, benchmark yield-beating options will be in focus given the ongoing Fed policy tightening. But in the present volatile market, dividend aristocrats – which are more stable, mature and profitable companies consistently raising dividends or going for high payouts – may serve up investors’ objective more efficiently. Why Dividend Aristocrats Are Superior Bets Now? These dividend aristocrat companies are generally apt for value investing. Since volatility is expected to pull the string ahead, what could be a better option than superior dividend investing for capital appreciation and some smart yields? In a market crash, these dividend aristocrats stand out and even navigate through volatility. As per the latest study carried out by Reality Shares, companies that initiated or hiked their dividends have beaten those that kept their dividends same, paid no dividend at all, or cut or scrapped dividends in the 1999-2015 time frame. This can be corroborated by the gains during the above-mentioned period, as dividend initiators and growers earned 5.4% return, the highest among the dividend players. All dividend payers took the second spot with 4.29% gains, followed by 1.92% gains enjoyed by dividend distributors with the same dividends. However, no-dividend payers or dividend cutters and scrappers recorded losses of 0.8% and 5.99% respectively, as per the document. Below, we highlight four dividend aristocrat ETFs which may give a relatively stable performance in the coming months amid further Fed rate hike bets, developed market woes and China’s hard-landing fears, and the occasional global market rout. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEARCA: VIG ) VIG follows the Dividend Achievers Select Index, which is composed of common stocks of high-quality companies that have a record of increasing dividends for at least 10 years. The $18.2 billion fund is currently home to 179 securities. The ETF is heavy on Industrials (22.4%) and Consumer Goods (21.6%). With an expense ratio of 0.10%, this is one of the cheapest funds in this space. It yields 2.46% annually, and was down 6.7% in the last one year (as of January 11, 2016). VIG has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy). SPDR Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SDY ) This fund provides exposure to the 101 U.S. stocks that have been consistently increasing their dividend every year for at least 25 years. It follows the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, and has amassed $12 billion in AUM. Volume is solid, exchanging more than 765,000 shares in hand, while the expense ratio comes in at 0.35%. The product is widely diversified across components, as each security accounts for less than 2.46% of total assets. Financials is the top sector, taking up one-fourth of the portfolio, while Industrials (14.7%), Consumer Staples (13.9%), and Utilities (12%) round off the next three spots. The fund was down nearly 10.4% in the last one year (as of January 11, 2016). SDY yields 2.80% and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold). Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ) This $2.9 billion fund tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which measures the performance of high dividend-yielding U.S. stocks that have a record of consistently paying dividends. The 106-stock fund charges a meager 7 bps in fees. Consumer Staples is the fund’s focus sector with about 23% exposure, followed by IT (19.3%). SCHD yields 3.13% annually (as of January 11, 2016) and lost 7.1% in the last one year. It also has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Growth ETF (NASDAQ: DGRW ) This fund tracks the WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Growth Index and offers diversified exposure to U.S. dividend-paying stocks with both growth and quality characteristics. It has gathered $594.5 million in its asset base. The ETF charges 28 bps in fees per year from investors. DGRW holds 300 securities in its basket, with each holding less than 4.16% share. From a sector look, it provides double-digit allocation to Consumer Discretionary (20.11%), IT (19.48%), Industrials (19.23%), Consumer Staples (18.59%) and Healthcare (14.95%). The fund has shed 6.1% in the year-to-date time frame and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. Original Post