Author Archives: Scalper1

Market Lab Report – Weekend Review of Pocket Pivots for the Week of January 11-15, 2016

Trading Journal notes from Dr. K and Gil regarding Pocket Pivot reports sent out this past week: Facebook (FB) GM – FB violated its 50-day moving average on the first trading day of the New Year, setting the stock off on a choppy path down to its 200-day moving average this past Thursday. When it hit the 200-day line it reversed with the market on very heavy volume for a supporting type of pocket pivot. This sort of move is difficult to buy after the fact, but Friday’s gap-down pullback brought the stock closer to the 200-day line. It closed Friday just over 2% above the 200-day line. Since I would never buy this on strength, the pullback obviously catches my eye, and the fact that the stock is so close to the 200-day line puts it in a lower-risk position if one wanted to try and catch a long trade and bounce before FB announces earnings at the end of the month. Buying as close to the 200-day as possible while using that as a guide for a very tight downside stop keeps risk to absolute minimum. DRK – This was one of the first stocks to hit new highs after the correction in August 2015. It is one of the “FANG” stocks, a group of stocks that had shown pronounced leadership as witnessed by the strength in the NASDAQ-100 index. But as the major indices corrected more than 10% for a second time just recently, almost no stock was left untouched. FB consequently bounced off its 200-day with enough volume to qualify as a pocket pivot. But as discussed in a recent PPR report, buying on weakness has been a better strategy. And with the markets still in a sharp downtrend, one should wait for a bounce in the majors before putting any capital to work on the long side. This bounce may come as early as Tuesday so keep a watchful eye. Equinix (EQIX) GM – EQIX traded a huge amount of volume on Thursday when it reversed off of its 50-day moving average and closed up strongly for a pocket pivot. The pullback on Friday closed just over 1% away from the 50-day line, which puts this into a lower-risk entry point if one were looking for a possible long trade on the basis of the pocket pivot. EQIX isn’t expected to announce earnings until February 18th, so it has more time to work than FB. Whether FB or EQIX can succeed from here is likely going to be a function of how the market behaves over the next several days. DRK – Stocks such as this one that can buck market corrections not once but twice in a short span of time are certainly worth a closer look. Keep a close eye as the major indices may stage a sharp bounce as early as Tuesday. One could try their hand here with a stop at say 1% under its 50-day for a total risk of roughly 2.5% assuming their entry is at Friday’s closing price.           

Guggenheim Defensive Equity: Another Defensive ETF That Failed Miserably To Do Its Job

As the equities markets are crashing all over the planet, more conservative players look to play defense by considering defensive investments and related exchange traded funds to hedge against the current correction. Defensive Stocks and Sectors During market downturns, high volatility and economic uncertainties, many investors use a risk aversion strategy by rotating to defensive sectors through buying defensive stocks and ETFs to shelter from the storm. Defensive Stocks and Sectors are those deemed non-cyclical and not very dependent on the overall economic cycle. The traditional sectors considered defensive are utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. After all, consumers cannot easily manage without gas and electricity, soap and toothpaste and of course their medicine. Other sectors deemed defensive are the telecom sector and the US real estate REIT sectors. Part of what makes defensive stocks and sectors appealing is their relatively higher and “safer” dividend which caters to investors wanting equity exposure but less risk. DEF Fund Description The Guggenheim Defensive Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DEF ) seeks investment results that correspond to the performance, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of the Sabrient Defensive Equity Index (the “Defensive Equity Index”). The Fund invests at least 90% of its total assets in US common stocks, American depositary receipts (“ADRs”) and master limited partnerships (“MLPs”). Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC (the “Investment Adviser”) seeks to replicate the performance of the Defensive Equity Index which is comprised of approximately 100 securities selected from a broad universe of global stocks, generally including securities with market capitalizations in excess of $1 billion. For more information about this ETF click here . ETF methodology and Sector Allocation Index selection methodology is designed to identify companies with potentially superior risk/return profiles to outperform during periods of weakness in the markets and/or in the American economy overall. The Index is designed to actively select securities with low relative valuations, conservative accounting, dividend payments and a history of outperformance during bearish market periods. The Index constituents are well-diversified and supposed to represent a “defensive” portfolio. The sector allocation of this ETF is as follows: DEF Dividend and Fees DEF pays a respectable dividend of 3.31% and charges an acceptable management fee of 0.65%. The Perfect Defensive ETF? At first glance, DEF looks like a pretty diversified ETF, positioned within the right sectors to hedge against economic downturns in its focus on traditional defensive stocks, including utilities, real estate and consumer defensive. With its highly regarded investment advisor Guggenheim and an investment strategy that seems logical, DEF might even look like the perfect defensive ETF, as its name suggest, but is it really? Performance of DEF in the past 30 days The following chart depicts the performance of DEF against the S&P 500 index tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) during the past 30 days ending Friday January 15, 2016: Click to enlarge As noted on the chart above, DEF utterly failed as a defensive ETF as it tumbled 6.4% when the S&P 500 Index fell 8.4%. Let us compare the performance of DEF against the average performance of the five defensive sectors: Source ycharts.com The failure of DEF is even more evident based on the above table as DEF tumbled by 6.4% against an average decline of 4% for the five main sectors considered to be defensive. So what went wrong with this ETF which seems to tick all the right boxes? In order to understand what went wrong we have to dig a little deeper. Three reasons DEF failed to do its job as a defensive ETF Geographical allocation issues A high 9.3% geographical exposure to the Asian market, of which about one-third relating to emerging markets. The allocations include countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Asian emerging markets, all of which are very sensitive to China and took a large hit from the Chinese stock market crash. Stocks in this category include Telekomunik Indonesia (NYSE: TLK ), Japanese Nippon Telegraph & Tele (NYSE: NTT ), and Korean SK Telecom Co (NYSE: SKM ). Direct exposure to China (China Mobile (NYSE: CHL ), China Petroleum & Chemicals (NYSE: SNP ), and Chunghwa Telecom (NYSE: CHT )). About 2% is allocated to South American markets which are highly dependent on commodities and tend to be more sensitive to economic and market volatility and uncertainty. Stocks in this category include Banco De Chile-ADR (NYSE: BCH ) and Mexican Grupo Aeroportuario PAC-ADR (NYSE: PAC ). Sector Allocation issues The Fund has a high 8.2% exposure to the energy sector including oil and gas Master Limited Partnerships. These sectors got hammered the past month. DEF holds indeed high risk stocks for the current environment, such as National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV ) and Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS ). A 3.2% exposure to the basic material sector which has been diving for the past two years, as commodity prices reached multi-year lows on concerns of a China slowdown. Stocks in the ETF include AGL Resources (NYSE: GAS ) and Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT ). A very high exposure of 14.5% to the telecom sector proved to be too much for a defensive ETF, as the sector plunged 7.6% to become one of the ugliest defensive plays for the past month. Stocks in the ETF include Verizon (NYSE: VZ ), Frontier Communications (NASDAQ: FTR ), NTT Docomo and Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD ). Passive Investing Strategy The most notable problem with DEF Fund lays in the fact that it uses a “passive” or “indexing” investment approach which makes it vulnerable as economic conditions change. DEF does not have a dynamic system in place to exclude currently risky sectors which once used to be considered safe, such as the oil sector and commodities sector, or to limit exposure to disfavored regions and countries. Conclusion Guggenheim Defensive Equity DEF – don’t get fooled by its name! The same can be said about other Defensive ETFs which may seem right at first glance. Investors should still do their due diligence and closely examine how the underlying assets are invested before putting money at work. Special note I am currently sharing on Seeking Alpha additions to my high-yield “Retirement Dividend Portfolio” (target yield 6% to 9%), with the latest one: Hedging My High Dividends with German Exposure . Follow me for future updates!