Author Archives: Scalper1

Popularity And Price Increase For ‘Low Vol’ Funds

“Low volatility” funds have surged in popularity recently as investors have poured nearly $10 billion into them so far in 2016, which has significantly increased their price. At the end of 2015, one such “low vol” fund (i.e., specializing in stocks that fluctuate less than the broader market) had a P/E ratio just above the market as a whole. By the end of April 2016, it was “nearly 10% more expensive than the market average,” reports a recent Wall Street Journal blog piece. Nardin Baker of Guggenheim Partners Asset Management, who has written on and managed such funds for decades, says that low volatility stocks have outperformed the market by an average of about 1 percentage point annual with roughly 30% less risk. Dan Draper, who manages a low volatility fund for Invesco Powershares, says that investors pay less in bull markets for stocks that don’t make big moves, which made them cheap. “But can unpopular investments continue outperforming after they become popular?” the article asks. Andrew Ang of BlackRock says that potential overvaluation is “a valid concern” and “excessive crowding of any strategy should send up a red flag of warning,” but that these stocks are not currently “at extreme values by any standard.” Although Baker says “anybody who’s in low vol right now, they’re not going to be hurt,”but Dave Nadig of FactSet says that “if everybody’s chasing the same stocks, eventually they will no longer be cheap and returns will regress to the mean.” Ang says investors should not “go into low vol to outperform the market,” but “to reduce your risk.”

What Lies Ahead For M&A ETF?

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activities across a number of sectors were on a tear last year, with a record level of such activities. But the momentum for M&A – one of the major drivers of the stock market ascent in recent times – seems to be fading this year. At least, the numbers are giving such cues. The volume of global deals is $US822.2 billion ($1.1 trillion) so far this year, which represents a decline of 17% year over year (read: Merger & Acquisition ETFs: Will 2016 Replicate 2015? ). In addition to this data, there has been a surge of failed M&A deals lately. As per data provided by Dealogic , “US targeted withdrawn M&A volume is up 64% on full year 2015 ($231.1bn) to $378.2bn in 2016 YTD (as of May 4, 2016).” This is because several mega deals have been called off lately which took the size of U.S. oriented withdrawn M&A to a record level. Drugmaker Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE ) decision to abandon its $160 billion deal to unite with Botox maker Allergan plc (NYSE: AGN ) due to the new Treasury guidance related to tax inversion is the largest called-off deal on record. The $103 billion deal between Honeywell International (NYSE: HON ) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX ) is also out of action. There was also a proposed $38.7 billion merger deal between Halliburton (NYSE: HAL ) and Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI ), which finally fell apart in April. As per Dealogic, with the termination of these likely deals, investment bankers were hard hit as they lost about $1.2 billion in possible investment fees. What’s Next? It looks like that the removal of mammoth deals in the U.S. actually inflated the size of withdrawn M&A data ($357.8 billion); the data speaks less about the diminishing number of activities. As per financial review, though there was a plunge in global M&A deal size, the number of announced transactions is 8,025 so far in 2016 versus 8,085 last year, indicating that the number has just moderated, and is far from completely losing momentum. The stringency in the U.S. tax inversion rule is less likely to put an end to cross-border deals. Yes, it could slow the momentum, but cannot stop them altogether (read: New Tax Inversions Rules: Threats to Healthcare ETFs? ) Another reason for the M&A slowdown is the underperformance of hedge funds in recent times. Notably, activists’ hedge funds play a huge role in companies’ merger and acquisition decisions. If the climate improves in this area, maybe M&A sector will receive a fresh lease of life. Also, being an election year, activities may remain slightly subdued in the U.S. Plus, the banking sector is facing stringent regulation and is also caught in a trap following energy sector issues. This is because banks have considerable exposure in the energy sector, which may default on persistent low oil prices. This scenario made the banks unsure of “how much leverage they should supply to private equity transactions, which has caused them to shy away from lending to PE-backed deals .” If the banking sector recovers in the near term, mergers and acquisitions may also perk up and investors could easily take advantage of the merger arbitrage strategy. This strategy looks to tap the price differential (or spread) between the stock price of the target company after the public announcement of its proposed acquisition and the price offered by the acquirer to pay for the stock of the target company. This is especially true given that investors should go long on the target or the acquired company and short on the acquiring company. When the deal is completed, shares of the target company will increase to the full deal price (in some cases slightly below the deal price), giving investors a nice profit. How to Play? Here are three merger arbitrage ETFs, any of which could make compelling options for investors seeking to play this area. These are the IQ Merger Arbitrage ETF (NYSEARCA: MNA ), the ProShares Merger ETF (BATS: MRGR ) and the Credit Suisse Merger Arbitrage Index ETN (NYSEARCA: CSMA ). Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Lookin’ For Yield In All The Right Places

In a world of low and in some cases negative interest rates, investors continue to struggle to find yield. As such, they still find themselves in an all too familiar place: Accept less income, or take on more risk in the search for yield. But with global growth still sluggish and bond and stock prices looking expensive, balancing income and risk is more important (and challenging) than ever. The question for investors isn’t “Where can I go for yield?” It is: “In this environment, where can I find meaningful yield without taking on significant or unknown risk? ” There is a bit of a balancing act between yield and risk. Let’s take a look at how it can be done in three areas of opportunities for investors seeking income today. Fixed income Bonds or fixed income essentially play two roles in a portfolio: They offer yield or income, as well as potential diversification benefits as a sort of ballast to counter equity risks. Bonds run the gamut of risk and income. Short-term Treasuries offer the lowest default risk and generally the lowest yield, while high yield bonds typically offer considerably higher yields, but with significantly more risk. These two investments are quite different, but both can play a crucial role in a portfolio. However, the yields of Treasuries are paltry while credit instruments like high yield bonds exhibit equity-like risk, albeit with potentially higher yields. For investors looking to balance yield AND risk, risk-adjusted returns are important. That’s where municipal bonds come in. Municipal bonds aren’t an exciting topic over a cocktail party, however they were one of the best performing bond categories in 2015. According to Bloomberg data on the S&P AMT-Free National Municipal Bond Index, munis returned 3.3 percent in 2015, beating taxable investment grade bonds. This year, munis remain one of the highest sources of yield on a risk-adjusted basis. The sector’s tax-exempt status is another plus, and munis are a portfolio diversifier, with negative correlations to equities and high yield, our analysis shows. Other parts of the fixed income market have experienced volatility recently due to energy exposure or anticipation of Federal Reserve (Fed) moves, but the municipal bond market has been relatively stable. This may surprise some given the recent default announcement of Puerto Rican debt, which is a vivid reminder of why it’s important for investors to be completely aware of what they own and the risk they take in search of yield. (iShares ETFs are not impacted directly by the default, as none hold bonds issued by any U.S. territories, such as Puerto Rico or Guam.) Equity income If you prefer equity-like risk to come from equities in your search for yield, dividend stocks are a logical place to look. But it is important to remember that not all dividend stocks are created equal. As I’ve written before, my preference is for the segment of the market known as “dividend growers,” which as the name implies, are companies with a history of increasing dividends. There are some conditions – and clear distinctions – that may set dividend growers apart from other dividend stocks in today’s market, particularly their attractive valuations, stable earnings and stronger balance sheets. Somewhere in between Finally, there is an often overlooked option for investors looking to balance risk and yield: preferred stocks. Preferreds are income-generating securities that have both stock and bond characteristics. When it comes to risk, they’re somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. Similar to a bond’s coupon payment, preferred stocks pay fixed or floating dividends. They can appreciate in value like a common stock, but they’re not as volatile. Some question if preferred stocks will remain an attractive asset class in a rising rate environment. But since we expect the Fed to continue its dovish stance and rate rises to be gradual, we wouldn’t expect to see big downward spikes in preferred prices. Preferred stocks may also be attractive in this environment due to the fact that they’re issued mainly by financial companies, like banks, where net interest margins generally show improvement. Also, see what my colleague Russ Koesterich has to say on preferreds. Investors looking to balance risk and income while searching for yield may want to consider the iShares National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund (NYSEARCA: MUB ), the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: DGRO ) and the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (NYSEARCA: PFF ). This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.