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The News Is Always Worst At The Bottom

Summary There is an old saying on Wall Street that I will paraphrase as: The news is always best at the top and worst at the bottom. This axiom is more of an observation of investor behavior rather than an actionable trigger for calling tops and bottoms. I am reminded of this logic when I look at the situation in emerging market countries, and even more so with Brazil. There is an old saying on Wall Street that I will paraphrase as: The news is always best at the top and worst at the bottom . That is because good news drives buyers in and bad news generally causes widespread selling and/or panic as sentiment reaches extremes. Once all of the bandwagon investors have either jumped on or stepped off a trend, the price begins to reverse course. This axiom is more of an observation of investor behavior rather than an actionable trigger for calling tops and bottoms. However, I am reminded of this logic when I look at the situation in emerging market countries, and even more so with Brazil. Last night, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s credit rating to junk status in a move that is shocking to no one that has looked at a chart of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWZ ). This ETF tracks a diversified basket of large- and mid-cap stocks domiciled in Brazil, and has fallen more than 50% over the last year. In fact, EWZ has been in a long-term downtrend since it peaked back in 2011. Some of the more recent and ferocious selling in Brazil may be prompted by issues stemming from the rout in Chinese stocks alongside other lesser-known emerging market countries. The broad-based iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) fell 30% from its April 2015 peak to the August low. In addition, this ETF is trailing only the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) in net year-to-date outflows , with over $7.2 billion in investor redemptions. Yet, despite the continued deluge of negative headlines concerning these overseas markets, we are actually seeing some constructive price action over the last several weeks. EEM has managed to establish one higher low in September and shake off the latest round of Brazil downgrades. In addition, the sideways action in the U.S. dollar index may embolden some investors look for value overseas. Whether you are a bull or a bear on emerging market indexes, this is certainly an area that is worth monitoring through the remainder of 2015. There will likely be profitable opportunities for both sides moving forward. The Bottom Line I have no idea if this moment will mark THE low in emerging markets or if it is simply a brief respite in the path to further selling. Bad news can always get worse. If there is one thing I have learned over the years, it’s that the markets can stay irrational for much longer than you can stay solvent . Nevertheless, keep in mind that some of the worst news headlines have actually sparked some of the biggest inflection points over the history of investing. That is why it pays to be flexible and maintain a counterintuitive mindset when others are fearful . Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: David Fabian, FMD Capital Management, and/or clients may hold positions in the ETFs and mutual funds mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities.

ETFs To Lose Or Gain From Solid July Job Data

The U.S. labor market continued its strength with steady job gains in July, which were enough to increase the chances of the Fed pulling its trigger on the first rate hike in almost a decade as early as next month. The Fed in its last FOMC meeting stated that it is on track to increase interest rates albeit at a slower pace if the job market shows further improvement. And this is exactly what happened. The U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs in July driven by higher construction and manufacturing employment that more than offset the collapsing mining sector. Though the number was marginally below the market expectation of 225,000, unemployment remained steady at seven-year low of 5.3%. Additionally, average hourly wages rose five cents to $24.99, bringing the year-over-year increase to 2.1%. Jobless claim were the lowest level since June 2008 at 10.4% against 10.5% in June. Further, the economy appears closer to full employment given that the number of full-time U.S. jobs as a share of total employment reached to 81.7%, marking the highest level since November 2008. The decent job data suggests that the economy continued to gain momentum in July after growing 2.3% in the second quarter. To make the case for rates hike stronger, a surging service sector, increasing business activity, higher consumer spending, a recovering retail and housing market, and rising consumer confidence point to even strong economic growth that would translate into more jobs and the resultant higher rates. ETFs to Watch The news has extended the losing streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the seventh day – the longest since August 2011. Additionally, the index is currently hovering at its six-month low. As a result, a few ETFs were severely impacted by the solid jobs data while a few are expected to gain in the weeks ahead. Below, we have highlighted some that are especially volatile post jobs data and increased chances of rates hike: ETFs to Lose SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) Gold will continue to remain under immense pressure as higher interest rates would diminish gold’s attractiveness since the yellow metal does not pay interest like fixed-income assets and the product tracking this bullion like GLD will lose further. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, and kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. It is the ultra-popular gold ETF with AUM of $23.5 billion and average daily volume of around 5.7 million shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.40%. The fund is down 7.9% so far in the year and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) As the Fed moves closer to interest rate hike, emerging markets will slump further. The most popular emerging market ETF – EEM – lost about 7% in the year-to-date timeframe and has seen huge capital outflow which has pulled its total asset base down to $24.2 billion. The fund tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and charges 68 bps in annual fees from investors. Holding 847 securities, the product is widely spread out across various securities but is tilted toward the financial sector at 29.3%, followed by information technology (17%). Among the emerging countries, China takes the top spot at 23.6% while South Korea and Taiwan round off the next two spots with double-digit exposure each. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) The U.S. government bonds and ETFs tracking the long end of the yield curve are the most vulnerable to higher interest rates. The ultra-popular long-term Treasury ETF – TLT – tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index and has AUM of $4.9 billion. Expense ratio came in at 0.15%. Holding 29 securities in its basket, the fund focuses on the top credit rating bonds with average maturity of 26.9083 years and effective duration of 17.2035 years. The fund is almost flat from a year-to-date look and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. ETFs to Gain PowerShares DB USD Bull ETF (NYSEARCA: UUP ) A rise in interest rates will pull in more capital into the country and lead to further appreciation of the U.S. dollar. UUP is the prime beneficiary of the rising dollar as it offers exposure against a basket of six world currencies – euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. This is done by tracking the Deutsche Bank Long U.S. Dollar Index Futures Index Excess Return plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. In terms of holdings, UUP allocates nearly 58% in euro while 25.5% collectively in Japanese yen and British pound. The fund has so far managed an asset base of $1.3 billion while sees an average daily volume of around 2.6 million shares. It charges 80 bps in total fees and expenses and has added 6.5% in the year-to-date time frame. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEF ) The strength in the greenback is compelling investors to recycle their portfolio into the currency hedged ETFs. For those seeking exposure to the developed market with no currency risk, DBEF could be an intriguing pick. The fund follows the MSCI EAFE U.S. Dollar Hedged Index and holds 913 securities in its basket with none accounting for more than 1.82% share. However, it is skewed toward the financial sector, which makes up for more than one-fourth of the portfolio, while consumer discretionary, industrials, health care, and consumer staples round off the top five with double-digit exposure each. Among countries, Japan takes the top spot at 21%, closely followed by United Kingdom (19%), France (10%) and Switzerland (10%). The ETF has AUM of $14.4 billion and trades in a solid volume of more than 4.7 million shares a day. It charges 35 bps in fees per year from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. Link to the original article on Zacks.com

A Pleasant Surprise Among Emerging Market ETFs

Broadly speaking, these are not the best of times for emerging market exchange traded funds. India large-cap ETFs have been significantly better or less bad than other single-country and diversified emerging markets ETFs over the past month. In the near term, India ETFs could pullback following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision Tuesday to hold interest rates at 7.25 percent. By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor Broadly speaking, these are not the best of times for emerging market exchange traded funds. Things are so bad that 22 emerging markets funds hit 52-week lows on Monday. Since the star of the current quarter, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) has bled nearly $2.5 billion in assets. However, there is some light among the darkness and it comes courtesy of Indian small-caps. India large-cap ETFs have been significantly better or less bad than other single-country and diversified emerging markets ETFs over the past month, but funds such as the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF (NYSEARCA: SCIF ) , the EGShares India Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: SCIN ) and the iShares MSCI India Small Cap Index ETF (BATS: SMIN ) have legitimately impressed . While the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has tumbled 5.6 percent over the past month, the aforementioned trio of India small-cap ETFs posted an average return of almost 5.5 percent. This is not unfamiliar territory for India ETFs, which were the shining stars of the BRIC quartet last when emerging markets equities slumped. In the near term, India ETFs could pullback following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision Tuesday to hold interest rates at 7.25 percent, but the central bank has obliged with three rate cuts earlier this year, at least two of which can be considered surprises. Interestingly, the gains for Indian small-caps over the past month arrived as investors pulled $35 million from Indian stocks last month, still a scant percentage of the $7.1. billion that has flowed into stocks in Asia’s third-largest economy this year, according to Bloomberg . Divergent Returns Significant differences between the India small-cap ETFs tell the story of divergent returns. For example, the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF features a 21.2 percent to consumer discretionary stocks, leveraging the ETF to India’s burgeoning consumer story. SMIN, the iShares offering, is also a play on India’s resurgent domestic economy with a 44.3 percent allocation to financial services and industrial names. The EGShares India Small Cap ETF devotes over half its weight to financial stocks and industrials. A BlackRock fund manager recently sounded a bullish tone on Indian non-bank financials and select sub-sectors of the industrial space. Though the fund manager did not mention the ETFs highlighted here, institutional support for Indian small-caps should drive the likes of SCIF, SCIN and SMIN higher. Indian small-caps are not a bump-free ride. For example, SCIF has a three-year standard deviation of almost 32 percent, or 2 1/2 times that of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. However, Indian small-cap, at least as measured by SCIF and SCIN, are not excessively valued. SCIF sports a price-to-earnings ratio of just 11 , while SCIN’s price-to-book ratio is just 1.16. Disclaimer: Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.