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Popularity And Price Increase For ‘Low Vol’ Funds

“Low volatility” funds have surged in popularity recently as investors have poured nearly $10 billion into them so far in 2016, which has significantly increased their price. At the end of 2015, one such “low vol” fund (i.e., specializing in stocks that fluctuate less than the broader market) had a P/E ratio just above the market as a whole. By the end of April 2016, it was “nearly 10% more expensive than the market average,” reports a recent Wall Street Journal blog piece. Nardin Baker of Guggenheim Partners Asset Management, who has written on and managed such funds for decades, says that low volatility stocks have outperformed the market by an average of about 1 percentage point annual with roughly 30% less risk. Dan Draper, who manages a low volatility fund for Invesco Powershares, says that investors pay less in bull markets for stocks that don’t make big moves, which made them cheap. “But can unpopular investments continue outperforming after they become popular?” the article asks. Andrew Ang of BlackRock says that potential overvaluation is “a valid concern” and “excessive crowding of any strategy should send up a red flag of warning,” but that these stocks are not currently “at extreme values by any standard.” Although Baker says “anybody who’s in low vol right now, they’re not going to be hurt,”but Dave Nadig of FactSet says that “if everybody’s chasing the same stocks, eventually they will no longer be cheap and returns will regress to the mean.” Ang says investors should not “go into low vol to outperform the market,” but “to reduce your risk.”

Taking Profits On Our SPY Call Spread

You have just made a respectable 10.40% profit in only two trading days. What’s more, you have captured 90.32% of the maximum potential profit in this position. So it’s time to take a welcome profit. The risk/reward of running this position into the May 20 expiration is no longer favorable. As I argued vociferously at the February 11 bottom, yield support is underpinning stocks in a huge way, frustrating the hell out of short sellers, market timers, and hedge funds everywhere. With the volatility Index (VIX) plunging to the $13 handle today we have a nice opportunity to sell the S&P 500 SPDR’s (NYSEARCA: SPY ) May , 2016 $195-$198 in-the-money vertical bull call spread for a few extra pennies than we could yesterday. This all lends further credibility to my “Dreaded Flat Line of Death Scenario” whereby markets move sideways in a narrow range and nobody makes any money, except us. To see how to enter this trade in your online platform, please look at the order ticket below, which I pulled off of optionshouse . The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous. Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out. Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position: Sell 37 May, 2016 $195 calls at………….….……$12.40 Buy to cover short 37 May, 2016 $198 calls at…..$9.43 Net Cost:…………………………………………………..$2.97 Profit: $2.97 – $2.69 = $0.28 (37 X 100 X $0.28) = $1,036 or 10.40% profit in 2 trading days. Is That a Profit I See? Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Closed-End Funds: Still A Bargain

In a world in which very little is cheap and most mainstream stocks and bonds offer little in the way of expected returns, closed-end funds have been a fantastic source of value. I’ve been writing about closed-end funds for the better part of a year (see Closed-End Bond Funds Near Their Deepest Discounts Since 2008 ) and I’ve been very pleased with their performance in an otherwise choppy, directionless market. Yet I’ve noticed that some of the fantastic bargains I saw a year ago are starting to dry up. Or at least they’re not quite as juicy as they were. The 15% discounts to net asset value are now closer to about 10%. Though it may simply be a case of me getting spoiled. By any historical standard, closed-end funds are still exceptionally well priced. Patrick Galley, manager of the Rivernorth DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund, gave his thoughts to Barron’s this past week. (See 4 Closed-End Funds Yielding Up to 9% ): Q: Closed-end fund discounts have come in a lot since the beginning of the year. Aren’t they getting less attractive in general? A: Actually, closed-end fund discounts are still pretty attractive overall. In January and February they got so wide it was reminiscent of 2008. Fear was high and investors were dumping assets. Discounts got to the 98th percentile of the widest levels they’ve reached going back to 1996. They narrowed in March and April. Now they are at the 76th percentile of the widest levels. The averages are very much skewed by the muni-bond sector. Munis have had a good run and everyone wants them. Investors are chasing those past returns. They aren’t even looking at discounts and premiums. Meanwhile, taxable fixed-income spreads are still wide. As the examples I gave you show, a lot of them are still double-digit discount opportunities. 76th percentile is nothing to complain about. Sure, it was a lot more fun buying them at 2008-caliber discounts. But that’s really not normal, and every buying opportunity can’t be that good. So for the time being, I’ll plan on maintaining a solid allocation to closed-end funds in my Dividend Growth portfolio. The portfolio is up 13.5% year to date , and closed-end funds have certainly played their part in achieving those returns. This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Closed-End Funds: Still a Bargain Disclaimer : This site is for informational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice or as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Sizemore Capital personnel and clients will often have an interest in the securities mentioned. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all Sizemore Capital investment strategies have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.