Tag Archives: european

How To Invest In A Flat Stock Market

Tim Maverick, Senior Correspondent As The Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Industrial Average have not hit a new high in over a year. In fact, the stock market averages are little changed from the levels of late 2014 – not a shock, considering U.S. companies have been in an earnings recession for almost the same length of time. Investors are beginning to lose their patience with this stagnant stock market. Through the week of May 11, 2016, they’ve pulled $67.7 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2016, alone. For a market observer, like myself, this stuck-in-the-mud market status doesn’t come as a surprise. Just look at the history behind these dangerous stagnant periods. Muddy Market History According to the Bespoke Investment Group, this will mark the 21st time, since 1930, that the market has gone a year without making a new high. This is one of those dirty little secrets kept under lock and key by brokers and CNBC, alike. The stock market, on occasion, has gone through long periods without making any headway: Thanks to the Great Depression, the market levels of 1929 were not seen again until 1954. The 1970s were no picnic, either, thanks to the oil shock and rampant inflation. In January 1966, the Dow hit the 990 mark, a level that it did not re-visit until 1982. More recently, the Nasdaq hit a closing record of 5048.62 on March 10, 2000. It took another 15 years, in April 2015, for the market to surpass those numbers. While I don’t expect a long-term drought like these earlier periods for the current stock market, history proves that, in times like these, the S&P 500 Index funds are not a reliable path along which to set your hard-earned money. Can you afford to have your money just lying around for a decade or more, only to come up earning nothing? The only reason these funds’ recent history looks remotely positive is due to the flood of central bank liquidity since the financial crisis has floated big-cap boats. Even a casual examination of global markets shows that the central bank actions are losing their punch. And, despite all the liquidity, big cap stocks have been merely treading water since late 2014. Staying Afloat So what can investors do? It’s crucial to find the right investments – as shelter from the storm of earnings recession and rich valuations well above the 10-year average – that still offer some upside and keep your money working. The best place for earnings continues to be the bond market. An undeniable fact is: Thanks to zany central bank policies, there are, globally, nearly $10 trillion in government bonds that trade with a negative yield. That fact will – despite whatever the Fed may or may not do – keep a firm bid under U.S. Treasuries. With my forecast of a 1% yield on 10-year Treasuries within a year, the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) looks very appealing. Further, with the European Central Bank starting its corporate bond buying binge later this month, the Powershares International Corporate Bond Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PICB ) also looks like a winner. This ETF has more than a 50% exposure to European corporate bonds. It’s also important to note that periods of poor stock market returns tend to coincide with strong performances in gold and silver. As pointed out by my Wall Street Daily colleague, Jonathan Rodriguez: gold seems to have broken out on a technical basis. I would play gold through the VanEck Merk Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: OUNZ ), which allows investors to actually convert their holdings into physical gold, if they wish. Thus, this investment can become tangible and, therefore, even more reliable. However, the best way to play stocks, currently, is to stick with the dividend payers. One ETF to grab dividends globally is the WisdomTree Global Equity Income ETF (NYSEARCA: DEW ), which is up about 3% this year in addition to paying quarterly dividends. U.S. stocks make up roughly 55% of the portfolio, led by well-known names like General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM ) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ). The returns from the funds I’ve mentioned project steady gains and I believe they will easily outpace stagnant S&P 500 funds.

Catch These Poland ETFs On The Upswing

Poland’s currency zloty, bonds and stocks gained on Monday (May 16, 2016) as Moody’s reaffirmed its long-term credit rating for the country at A2. And unsurprisingly two ETFs tracking the country – the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EPOL ) and the VanEck Vectors Poland ETF (NYSEARCA: PLND ) – jumped 3.4% and 3%, respectively. Poland, one of the outperformers in the EU, has been lagging in recent months thanks to growth slowdown in the emerging markets. Eurozone troubles also continue to weigh on the country. Still, as per IMF forecasts, the country’s GDP growth rate is expected to touch 4% in 2016 as compared to 3.6% in 2015 building investors’ confidence in the country. Headwinds Remain Although Poland did not get a downgrade from Moody’s, the rating agency revised its outlook for the country to negative from stable. The agency cited several reasons for the change in outlook including fiscal risks arising from a substantial increase in current expenditures, uncertainty as to offsetting revenue measures and the government’s intention to lower the retirement age. Another factor affecting the outlook was the risk of deterioration in the investment climate thanks to unpredictable policies and legislations. The President’s office has recently presented a proposal to implement a law converting Swiss franc mortgages into zlotys. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has criticized this proposal and stated that the country’s financial system along with credit and economic growth will stand to suffer if the country goes ahead with its plan to convert foreign-currency denominated mortgages. The IMF has also warned that the increase in government expenditure would lead to a rise in budget deficit to 2.8% in 2016. The rising budget deficit could even cross 3% in 2017, breaching the European Union’s budgetary rules. Instead, the IMF has encouraged the Polish government to follow policies that are market friendly. Despite these concerns, investors who believe that Poland is poised for a turnaround could catch the Poland-focused ETFs. Both the ETFs carry a favorable Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating, suggesting room for upside. EPOL in Focus EPOL has about $173.4 million in AUM and an average daily volume of 274,000 shares. The product tracks the MSCI Poland IMI 25/50, charging 63 basis points a year from investors. With 40 stocks in its basket, this fund puts as much as 46.1% of its total assets in the top five holdings, suggesting high concentration risk. Financials actually makes up roughly half of the portfolio with 44.7% exposure. Energy and materials round off the top three sectors with exposure of 17.3% and 9.6% respectively. Shares of EPOL fell roughly 5.4% in the last one-month period ended May 16, 2016. PLND in Focus The fund looks to track the VanEck Vectors Poland Index and has 26 securities in its basket, charging investors 60 basis points a year in fees. The fund has 36.4% of its total assets in the top five holdings. PLND also puts heavy focus on financials, with as much as 37.1% exposure, followed by a 14.1% allocation to energy, 12.7% coverage in utilities and 11.4% in consumer discretionary. PLND sees a paltry volume of around 13,000 daily, while the ETF lost more than 5.8% in the last 30 days. Original Post

What’s Driving The Global ETF Industry?

Amid continued volatility in the oil price and the instability in the stock markets, assets invested under global ETFs/ETPs touched an all-time high of $3.138 trillion in April. While equities failed to impress the ETF space, fixed income led the way. As per data from ETFGI’s April 2016 global ETF and ETP industry insights report , the Global ETF/ETP industry had a whopping 6,297 ETFs/ETPs from 283 providers on 65 exchanges at the end of April 2016. As per the report, inflows were witnessed across the globe with record levels of assets being gathered in the U.S. ($2.217 trillion), Canada ($77.42 billion), Europe ($533.34 billion), Japan ($145.93 billion) and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region ($125.21 billion) (read: Will European ETFs Continue to Underperform SPY? ). In April, global ETFs/ETPs witnessed net inflows of $10.13 billion, led by fixed income ETFs/ETPs which gathered the largest net inflows with $7.73 billion. This is not surprising considering the upcoming U.S. election, Brexit vote and the impact of quantitative easing across the globe which have ruffled investors. Below we have discussed a couple of areas which saw the highest inflow last month. Bond ETFs Record flows in bond ETFs could be attributed to the low-yield environment in most developed markets across the world. Disappointing macroeconomic data, global market turbulence and threats to the stability of the U.S. economy have been making headlines since the beginning of the year, leading to volatility across all asset classes. Because of these factors, bond ETFs have lately gained a lot of popularity as investors continue to look for attractive and stable yield in this ultralow rate interest environment (read: Time for Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFs? ). In fact, these uncertainties led the central bank to lower the number of hikes and the projected federal funds rate this year. It now expects the federal funds rate to rise to 0.875% by the end of the year, instead of the previously expected 1.375%, implying only two rate hikes as compared to the four projected in December. The double blessing of easy monetary policy globally and a delayed rate hike in the U.S. made fixed-income securities a winner in the month, as investors scurried to safer assets. Funds which saw maximum inflows were the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: LQD ) – $1.2 billion, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) – $ 834.3 billion and the iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ) – $829.6 million. Minimum Volatility ETFs With mixed data flowing in from various quarters and widespread fear among investors about the direction of the market, it’s not surprising that investors are looking to follow a proper trading strategy which ensures stability. With that in mind investors sought low volatility ETFs with funds like the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) and the iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: EFAV ) witnessing inflows of $1.2 billion and $601.2 million, respectively. Link to the original post on Zacks.com