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Bristol-Myers Hits 17-Year High On Q1 Report; Celgene Also Up

Big-cap drug stocks Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY ) and Celgene ( CELG ) were both rising after their Q1 earnings reports early Thursday, though Celgene initially dropped as it delivered a long-expected guidance cut. Bristol-Myers reported earnings of 74 cents a share, minus one-time items, up 4% from the year-earlier quarter and beating analysts’ consensus by nine cents, according to Thomson Reuters. Revenue rose 9% to $4.39 billion, about $140 million above Wall Street’s average estimate. Bristol-Myers added 20 cents to its full-year EPS guidance, now $2.40 to $2.60. It expects revenue to grow in the low double-digit range, which would be the first time since 1997 that annual sales gained that much. Recently launched cancer drug Opdivo beat sales estimates by a substantial margin — $704 million vs. analysts’ $587 million — up from just $40 million in the year-earlier quarter. Anti-clotting drug Eliquis also handily beat expectations, with sales more than doubling to $734 million. Bristol-Myers stock was up more than 3% in  afternoon trading on the stock market today , near 72.50, its highest point since October 1999. Celgene Sales Lag Expectations, But EPS Beats Celgene, meanwhile, reported Q1 sales of $2.51 billion, a 21% gain on last year’s Q1 but almost $60 million below consensus. On the other hand, EPS beat estimates by five cents, rising 23% to $1.32. Celgene added 10 cents to its full-year earnings guidance, now $5.60-$5.70 a share, and raised the low end of its product-sales guidance to $10.75 billion-$11 billion. However, it trimmed its 2017 guidance to account for foreign-exchange headwinds. It now expects sales of $12.7 billion to $13 billion, vs. $13 billion-$14 billion previously. Celgene also cut its EPS target to $6.75-$7.00 from $7.25. The company affirmed its previously issued 2020 guidance. Celgene stock dropped in early trading but was up more than 2%, above 108, by early afternoon Thursday. Wall Street had anticipated the 2017 guidance cut. “Investors will be looking for an update on 2017 guidance following the $700 million to $800 million FX headwind on top-line revenues mentioned on their 4Q 2015 call,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Mark Schoenebaum in a preview note Wednesday. “Celgene neither revised nor reaffirmed 2017 guidance at that time and may provide an update to their current guidance.” On the conference call with analysts Thursday, Celgene’s management said that on a constant-currency basis, financials are tracking to hit their original targets.

Amazon Earnings Top 5 Things You Need To Know For Thursday

On slate for Thursday are quarterly earnings reports from Amazon ( AMZN ), LinkedIn ( LNKD ), Baidu ( BIDU ) and Gilead Sciences ( GILD ) after the close. Before the market open, investors will get their first look at first-quarter economic growth. Amazon The e-commerce giant is expected to earn 58 cents a share in Q1, swinging to a profit from a 12-cent loss last year. Revenue is projected to climb 23% to $27.99 billion. Last quarter, Amazon fell well short of earnings estimates and came up light on revenue, sending shares down as much as 32% from their high in the following weeks. But its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services, is a bright spot. It hauled in $2.4 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 69% year over year. Shares are flirting with being within the lower boundary of a buy range from a cup-with-handle base with a 603.34 buy point, which it initially broke out of a few weeks ago. Amazon fell 1.7% to 606.57 after falling to 601.28 intraday. LinkedIn The professional social network’s earnings are projected to grow 5% to 60 cents ex items, a sharp drop from the 54% growth that it saw in the prior quarter. Revenue is expected to jump 30% to $828.5 million. Shares dropped 44% on LinkedIn’s last quarterly report, which showed weak Q1 guidance. LinkedIn stock has climbed off of its low, reached in the following days, and is now trading 54% below its 52-week high. Facebook Social networking leader Facebook ( FB ) crushed Q1 earnings and revenue projections late Wednesday, sending shares up 9% in late trade. If Facebook’s positive action continues into Thursday’s session, the stock will likely be in buy range from a cup-with-handle base with a 117.09 buy point. Baidu China Internet giant Baidu is projected to see Q1 EPS ex items fall 11% to 5.96 RMB (92 cents). Revenue is estimated to rise 24% to 15.83 billion RMB ($2.4 billion). Baidu’s mobile ecosystem is strong, according to ITG Research analyst Henry Guo. He said this week that his firm’s data indicates “that Baidu’s Mobile Search app dominates the mobile search market with more than 23% installation penetration among Chinese mobile users, well ahead of its key competitors Sogou Search (1.7%) and Qihoo 360 Technology ( QIHU ) Search (0.2%).” Baidu is trading just below buy range from a cup-with-handle base that it broke out of recently. It’s trading 13% below its 52-week high. Gilead Sciences The biotech’s earnings are estimated to rise 6% to $3.13 a share, slower than last quarter’s 37% growth. Revenue is seen rising 7% to $8.1 billion, also a deceleration from the prior quarter. Comparisons are getting tougher after Gilead earnings and sales skyrocketed on hepatitis C treatments. Gilead retook its 200-day line last week but breached that level in Wednesday’s session. Shares are trading 18% below their 52-week high. Fellow big-cap biotech Amgen ( AMGN ) also reports quarterly results Thursday, with analysts expected a 5% EPS gain. Amgen, which fell 1.1% to 161 on Thursday is near a buy point at 165.33 in cup-shaped base. Before the market open, biotechs Alexion Pharmaceuticals ( ALXN ) and Celgene ( CELG ) report, along with big pharma Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY ) and AbbVie ( ABBV ) makes a rival hepatitis C treatment. Q1 GDP After Q4’s OK but not great 1.4% gain, coupled with ongoing issues regarding a strong dollar, weak energy sector and sluggish manufacturing, weak growth is expected in Q1. Wall Street expects a scant 0.7% annualized gain.

The Great R&D Debate: How Much Should Drugmakers Spend?

Before Valeant Pharmaceuticals recently cracked up over accounting and management issues, one of the most controversial aspects of its business model was its attitude toward research and development spending. Valeant ( VRX ) would typically pare to the bone the R&D operations of companies it acquired, and chided big pharmas for their allegedly wasteful spending on research. Historically its R&D spending was just 3% of sales. By contrast, the R&D budget of Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY ) last year totaled 36% of sales, Pfizer ‘s ( PFE ) was nearly 16% and big biotech Celgene ‘s ( CELG ) was a whopping 40%. But what is really the appropriate spending level for R&D — and how should it be spent? IBD recently asked Jonathan Gertler, a former biotech entrepreneur who advises companies on just this issue as managing partner of Back Bay Life Science Advisors. IBD:   Looking over pharma in general, do you think they’re spending the right amount on R&D? Too much? Too little? Gertler:  I tend to divide R&D into two categories broadly. There’s the R&D that really is focused on new technology, true biologically driven solutions for diseases. I think that level of spending is appropriate. I think increasingly, the collaborations between smaller and larger companies and the collaborations that are truly advancing between companies and academia really are focused on R&D that’s going to be meaningful in terms of overall national health and international health, and really driving significant solutions. There is still a tendency, in some companies, to look for follow-on commercial pharmaceutical solutions. You see that ranging from the private equity world all the way up through large pharma and specialty pharma, where it’s probably less innovation-driven. And although those dollars are still well spent in terms of the company’s viability, in terms of a primary research agenda they’re probably less important than the new biologically driven therapies. IBD:  Another issue is whether companies want to do the R&D in-house or basically buy it by buying a company. Do you have any general guidelines on that? Gertler:  In that I would categorize it into three main groups: the smaller companies that are innovation-driven and somewhat capital-constrained; the midcaps that have had success with aspects of their platform, that either have the chance to focus in on that platform alone, and start to diversify around the platform; and, of course, the global pharma companies. I think there was a lot of emphasis over the last number of years about outsourcing R&D entirely. Our system doesn’t work that way. Our system is, at this juncture, a very continuous ecosystem where you have many academics who have gone over to Big Pharma, driving significant R&D efforts; academics who are involved in early-stage companies; and seasoned executives from large companies moving into small companies. The lifeblood of small companies is identifying that which they can really develop, based on either platform or assets, within capital constraints. But then the relationships with the larger companies, where they become the outsourced R&D, is critical. The expertise within those large companies — which should not be eradicated — that has to do with R&D, and then ultimately commercial development, should influence the way those smaller companies act. The flip side of that is that large companies that have to focus — just by the way they’re judged by investors on the Street — on near-term commercial or commercial successes, still have to make sure that the pipeline is intact. If you eradicate R&D functionality from large companies, or significantly hamper it, you won’t have the proper means of identifying those smaller platforms that are going to be truly valuable five and 10 years down the line. And also, you won’t be able to help those smaller platforms both maintain their own organic growth while at the same time partnering out or licensing out to broaden the way the platform can have an impact. So I think the discussion of outsourced R&D vs. in-house R&D has become artificial. Our world at this juncture is too fluid and too sophisticated to justify that binary type of approach. IBD:  There’s also been a lot of talk about R&D efficiency, and whether some companies are wasting their resources. What’s your impression on that? Gertler:  First of all, I think that drug development is by nature a somewhat messy business. You can try to have an extremely strict, receptor-driven drug in development, but inevitably that will either have too small of an impact in terms of disease outcome, or will have too promiscuous effects on other systems, and then have too much collateral damage associated with its development. So inevitably, just by virtue of the biology, there’s going to be significant inefficiency in the process. I think that smaller companies sometimes do suffer from inefficiency. Their platforms can be very promising, but smaller companies sometimes lose sight of the best way to prove the concept of the platform, which may be economically smaller and tighter, and yet still really open up the platform once you’ve gone over that first inflection-point hurdle into larger things. From a large-company perspective, I think there are certainly many steps along the way, whether it’s in early-stage discovery or preclinical and early clinical development where many things will help us in the years to come — and those include biomarkers, and those include imaging processes for diseases and a greater understanding of selective biology for disease — that will, with the advance of knowledge, make our system more efficient. Doubtless there are inefficiencies in the systems that are due to bureaucracy, and the way things are judged. But I think the primary inefficiency is that drug discovery is, in and of itself, a messy business. IBD:  What sort of advice would you give to the nonspecialist investor about judging a company’s R&D program? Gertler:  If you’re looking at large companies, there are a lot of drivers of value for the public investor that probably go well beyond R&D. But I still think that using even a simple formula about percentage of R&D spend is probably not the way investors should look at those companies. I think that they should divide them into two areas. Those that are focused on R&D that’s really not primary pharmaceutical or biotech R&D — it has more to do with either me-too drugs or repurposed or reformulated drugs; I think those are less attractive investments. But if you look at larger companies that are really trying to fill the pipeline in a way that makes clinical sense — those are the ones (where), regardless of percentage of R&D spend, there is probably greater interest in having long-term support. The reason I say that is that as our health care system changes continually — and it inevitably will — we’ll have to have systems wherein drugs will have to have higher impact (and) better outcomes, and truly be differentiated to justify reimbursement and support. If you’re not a company that’s focused on that sort of targeted innovation, in the long run you’re not going to do as well. You also have to look at these companies and say, “What is coming out in terms of news in the near term? And is that news going be impactful to the sector it’s targeting?” Meaning: Is it a me-too drug, or is it a sixth-to-market drug that really is going to (have to) prove huge differentiation to make a difference? I think that would be less appealing. Or is it a drug that actually is addressing a significant unmet need, with a more-than-incremental mechanistic change, and where success there will also offer broader opportunity? Those are still the metrics that, even as as generalist investor in a public pharma company, I would bring to bear. For the midcap companies, I think the same principles apply. And the midcaps, which tend to have less-diversified portfolios, have to have that type of thinking applied to them even more stringently. Image provided by Shutterstock .