PayPal Stock Undercuts Key Levels As Investor Day Fails To Ease Fears

By | May 19, 2016

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PayPal ( PYPL ) shares fell Thursday, after the digital payments giant’s investor day showcased ambitious plans but failed to alleviate Wall Street’s fears of competition. Management emphasized the breadth of the platform, covering not only the traditional online payment capability but newer technologies at point of sale, ATMs, social media and customized applications for merchants. Executives hope to entice consumers to put more of their spending through PayPal by offering budgeting and money-management capabilities, while enticing merchants with the PayPal Credit offering. The OneTouch payment app has also taken off as a response to the increasing number of purchases made over mobile phones. Management also discussed the rise of “contextual commerce,” the trend toward technologies predicting consumer buying habits and bringing products to the consumer rather than the consumer going out and seeking them. Repeatedly, they pointed to the sheer size of PayPal’s network, after 17 years of existence, as bringing a key advantage over competing platforms in penetrating these new markets. However, Pacific Crest analyst Josh Beck wasn’t so sure. “PayPal highlighted a dramatic shift in commerce, underscored by diverging performance at Target ( TGT ) and Amazon ( AMZN ), which creates opportunity and risk,” Beck wrote in a research note. “Whether PayPal will be able to retain its competitive moat as Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon, Stripe and Visa ( V ) focus on mobile and contextual commerce remains unclear to us.” Beck retained a sector weight rating on PayPal stock. Margins Remain A Concern Management affirmed previous financial guidance, including that profit margins will be “stable to up.” Pretax margins took a definite hit last year as the company has invested in new projects, such as the recently acquired financial-remittance company Xoom. “While we believe management did an exceptional job explaining Paypal’s differentiation (serving both consumers and merchants; expanding relevance by providing solutions from Braintree, Paydiant, PayPal, Xoom and Credit), an intensifying competitive landscape, combined with the company’s margin outlook remain our biggest concerns,” wrote Sterne Agee CRT analyst Moshe Katri in a research note affirming his neutral rating. Credit Suisse analyst Paul Condra, who holds a buy rating on the stock, emphasized the positive. “Our conviction on the stock was strengthened from (1) commentary that the credit business is not more than high single digits percent of profit (well below speculation of around 25%) and will likely not grow beyond 2% to 3% of payment volume; and (2) increased visibility on growth outlook as management expects to double payment volume in four years, implying 20% total payment volume growth through 2019,” Condra wrote. PayPal stock fell 3.4% to 37.65 on the stock market today . It was seventh straight decline for the stock, which is now below entry points at 40.03 and 38.62. Apple stock fell 0.4% Thursday, while Visa dipped 0.7% and Amazon climbed 0.15%. RELATED: Apple Pay Rival MCX, Visa Loom At PayPal Analyst Day Scalper1 News

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