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Headline breaches drove 2015 cybersecurity spending, but the several-months-long lull in hacks won’t slug CyberArk Software ( CYBR ), company CEO Udi Mokady told IBD Friday, as shares sank after the company gave disappointing Q1 and 2016 earnings guidance late Thursday. CyberArk stock pitched to a 16-month low, toppling as much as 14% Friday. Shares were down 11%, near 32.50, in afternoon trading on the stock market today . Shares of fellow security vendor FireEye ( FEYE ), which also gave disappointing guidance, were down 5% Friday afternoon, touching an all-time low. But unlike Tableau Software ‘s ( DATA ) grim 2016 outlook last week, CyberArk’s and FireEye’s guidance misses didn’t spiral into a widespread security deluge. IBD’s 25-company Computer Software-Security was down a small fraction Friday afternoon. The group had soared 29% in the first seven months of 2015 on the heels of the Ashley Maddison, Anthem ( ANTM ) and U.S. Office of Personnel Management breaches. Thereafter, lacking high-profile breaches, the group plunged 40.5% in five months. CyberArk stock, too, was tugged down 38% in the back-half of 2015. But, Mokady says, while panic does play into stock prices, it doesn’t touch CyberArk’s sales. “Some vendors … are more driven by emergency spending and you need to be breached in order to dial their number,” he said. “We’re not seeing a change in demand. But we’re also a very prudent company.” Analysts are banking on that prudence. At least five analysts cut their price targets on CyberArk stock Friday, but at least three said the firm’s guidance was conservative. CyberArk Q4, 2015 Beat Estimates For Q4, CyberArk reported 39 cents earnings per share ex items on $51.5 million in sales, up 86% and 42%, respectively, vs. the year-earlier quarter, and topping the consensus model for 20 cents and $43.9 million. License revenue of $33 million accounted for 64% of revenue, Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Nowinski wrote in a research report. Nowinski cut his price target on CyberArk stock to 55 from 67 but reiterated his overweight rating. “Demand remains very strong, highlighted by a book-to-bill ratio of greater than 1,” he wrote. “They even had some larger deals with oil/gas companies, despite increasing macroeconomic pressure on that sector.” For Q1, CyberArk sees $42.5 million to $43.5 million in sales, topping the consensus for $41.6 million, and up 30% at the midpoint. But the EPS ex items view for 15-16 cents trailed analyst expectations for 17 cents, and would be flat to down 6%. CyberArk guided to $205 million to $207 million in 2016 sales, up 27% at the midpoint and above expectations for $202.3 million. But the EPS view for 83-86 cents would be down 15.5% at the midpoint and missed the consensus model for 91 cents. Mokady said he doesn’t “call that a miss.” “We provided guidance we believe in, and I guess the consensus was different,” he told IBD. “We think the prudent strategy is for us to invest. … That’s been guiding us as we planned our 2016.” Attack Lull Slams Cyberstocks The lull between attacks drew cybersecurity stocks down, PureFunds CEO Andrew Chanin told IBD. Chanin runs the HACK ( HACK ) ETF which includes CyberArk, FireEye, Check Point Software Technologies ( CHKP ), Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) and Fortinet ( FTNT ). Symantec ( SYMC ) stock leads the Top 10. HACK stock was flat Friday afternoon, hurt by CyberArk’s plunge. “That sharp move down today caught me by surprise,” Chanin said, noting CyberArk’s Q4 metrics were largely within expectations. “Investors that got into the space over the past year are probably licking some of their wounds right now, because it has been a very volatile ride. “I don’t think we’ve had a catastrophic attack yet. That could be the next major catalyst for the industry. … Investing is partially emotional.” During last year’s 30-day Cyber Sprint, the federal government acknowledged its shortcomings in privileged account management, CyberArk’s bread-and-butter, Mokady said. Now, credential protection is almost “the basic action.” That spotlight should benefit CyberArk, Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury wrote in a report. Nandury cut his price target on CyberArk stock to 30 from 47 but maintained his hold rating. Nowinski, William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho and Dougherty analyst Catharine Trebnick noted CyberArk’s conservative guidance. Dougherty expects to see “several quarters of beat and raises in 2016.” FireEye Sees Widening Q1 Losses Wall Street offered FireEye stock a caveat Friday as at least five analysts cut their price targets: The company’s transition to a platform service is well underway. For Q4, FireEye reported $184.8 million in sales, up 29%, and a per-share loss of 36 cents, better by a penny vs. the year-earlier loss. Billings of $257 million jumped 21%. Sales were just shy of the consensus model for $185.3 million. Analysts had modeled a per-share loss of 37 cents. And Pacific Crest analyst Rob Owens noted FireEye posted “massive deceleration in billings and revenue.” But Owens rates FireEye stock overweight. FireEye’s 2015 sales jumped 46% year over year to $623 million, a hair short of the consensus model for $623.4 million. But its per-share loss of $1.30 was 67 cents better than the 2014 metric and beat Wall Street views for $1.62. Billings of $797 million grew 35% year over year. Current-quarter sales guidance for $167 million to $177 million, up 37% at the midpoint, was at the low end of analyst expectations for $167.9 million. And FireEye’s per-share loss outlook for 49-53 cents missed Wall Street’s model for 40 cents. For Q1, the company expects $163 million to $183 million in billings, up 14% at the midpoint. FireEye Makes A Platform Play FireEye’s subscription-as-a-service and product platform expansion “could position the company to be a premier facilitator of organizations’ broad cybersecurity needs,” William Blair’s Ho wrote in a report. The transition would put FireEye in rivalry with Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ), another platform peddler. But the shift in demand is a concern, Owens wrote. “We believe FireEye is executing well on becoming a platform play, but the sudden demand shift from physical appliances to cloud-based offerings creates near-term risk,” he wrote. During Q4, product revenue declined 2%, but subscription revenue jumped 57.5%. International sales grew 70%, helping FireEye recover from a Q3 belly flop that caused shares to dive in November. Further into 2016, Ho expects FireEye to balance its investments amid the slowing “reactionary spending” environment. Scalper1 News
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